泥石流危险性动态灰色关联模型及其应用:以牛首山西麓地区为例  

Dynamic Grey Correlation Model for Debris Flow Risk Assessment and Its Application:A Case Study of Western Niushou Mountain

作　　者：刘嘉伟 陈奉川 刘高[1] 武耀栋 玄书晨 于飞 LIU Jia-wei;CHEN Feng-chuan;LIU Gao;WU Yao-dong;XUAN Shu-chen;YU Fei(School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Gansu Institute of Natural Resources Planning and Research,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省自然资源规划研究院,兰州730000

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2024年第33期14129-14135,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：甘肃省自然资源厅2022年度重点攻关项目(202207)。

摘　　要：为客观地确定泥石流影响因子的权重进而准确合理地评价泥石流的危险性,构建了泥石流危险性动态灰色评价模型。针对传统灰色关联分析法中因子权重确定的局限性,结合三角模糊理论,提出了动态分辨系数,根据不同泥石流沟的实际情况,动态调整各因子的分辨系数并确定相应权重,进而建立适用于泥石流危险性评价的动态灰色关联模型。运用该模型评价了牛首山西麓地区7条典型泥石流沟的危险性并与其他评价方法的结果进行了对比,结果表明:由于采用了考虑各沟实际情况和因子特征的动态分辨率并据此计算因子权重,泥石流危险性动态灰色关联模型能扩大泥石流危险性评价结果的区分度并提高分辨率,评价结果与实际情况更为吻合。该研究可为泥石流灾害环境的危险评估和工程分析提供合理和有效的参考依据。In order to objectively determine the weight of debris flow impact factors and accurately and reasonably evaluate the risk of debris flow,a dynamic grey correlation model for debris flow risk was constructed.Aiming at the limitation of factor weight determination in traditional grey correlation analysis method,combined with triangular fuzzy theory,a dynamic resolution coefficient was proposed.According to the actual situation of different debris flow gullies,the identification coefficient of each factor was dynamically adjusted and the corresponding weight was determined,and then a dynamic grey correlation model for debris flow risk was established.The model was used to evaluate the risk of seven typical debris flow gullies in the western Niushou Mountain and compared with the results of other evaluation methods.The results show that the dynamic grey correlation model of debris flow risk can expand the discrimination of debris flow risk assessment results and improve the resolution because of the dynamic resolution considering the actual situation and factor characteristics of each gully and calculating the factor weight accordingly.The evaluation results are more consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：泥石流 灰色关联模型 模糊理论 动态分辨系数 危险性评价 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学] TV144[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]