基于可持续生计框架的农户二轮延包方式选择意愿影响因素研究  

Research on the Factors Influencing Farmers’Willingness to Choose the Second-round Contract Extension Methods Based on the Sustainable Livelihood Framework

作　　者：刘灵辉 王天一 王瑾涵 尹婧文 LIU Linghui;WANG Tianyi;WANG Jinhan;YIN Jingwen(School of Public Administration,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China;Hangzhou International Urbanology Research Center/Zhejiang Urban Governance Research Center,Hangzhou 311121,China)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学公共管理学院,四川成都611731 [2]杭州国际城市学研究中心/浙江省城市治理研究中心,浙江杭州311121

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第10期59-69,共11页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“土地承包关系‘长久不变’背景下无地农民权益保障机制研究”(20BGL228);四川省哲学社会科学基金重点项目“四川撂荒耕地空间格局及分类利用研究”(SCJJ23ND44);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“技术驱动与治理变革:区块链与农村土地规模化流转的结合创新研究”(2021FRJHZD002);四川省哲社重点研究基地区域公共管理信息化研究中心重点项目“数字乡村的创新扩散:驱动机制与衍生成效”(QGXH23-02)。

摘　　要：研究目的:识别二轮延包时农户对二轮延包方式的差异化选择意愿,探析农户二轮延包方式选择意愿的影响因素。研究方法:多元Logistic回归分析。研究结果:(1)农户二轮延包方式在理论上有三种可能:直接顺延、小调整、大调整;(2)相比于选择直接顺延的二轮延包方式,人力资本中的人力资本数量对农户二轮延包方式选择意愿产生正向影响,自然资本中的农地质量对农户二轮延包方式选择意愿产生负向影响;(3)异质性检验发现人力资本仅对湖北地区农户二轮延包方式选择意愿产生显著影响,自然资本仅对湖北地区农户的大调整的二轮延包方式选择意愿产生显著的负向影响。同时,人力资本、金融资本、社会资本对不同类型农户二轮延包方式选择意愿的影响存在差异。研究结论:在二轮延包时,应直接顺延与适度小调整结合,在稳定地权的同时回应农户土地调整需求;加强新时代多层次社会保障体系建设,构筑农户的社会安全网;因地制宜制定多样化二轮延包方案,保障农户生计的可持续发展。The purposes of this study are to identify the differentiated willingness of farmers to choose second-round contract extension methods and to examine the factors underlying these choices.The research method is multivariate Logistic regression analysis.The research results show that:1)in theory,there are three feasible second-round contract extension methods for farmers,i.e.,direct extension,small land adjustments and large land adjustments.2)Compared to choosing the direct extension of the second-round contract,the quantity of human capital has a positive effect on the willingness to choose the second-round extension methods,while the quality of agricultural land as part of natural capital has a negative effect on the willingness of farmers to choose the second-round contract.3)The heterogeneity test reveals that human capital only has a significant impact on the willingness of farmers in Hubei Province to choose the secondround extension methods,while natural capital has a significant negative impact only on their willingness to choose major adjustments.Additionally,human,financial and social capital have different effects on the willingness of various types of farmers to choose second-round extension methods.In conclusion,combining direct extension with moderately small adjustments is recommended to balance farmers'land adjustment needs with land rights stability.Furthermore,the efforts should be made to strengthen the construction of a multi-level social security system in the new era and to build a social safety network for farmers.Finally,a diversified second-round extension program should be developed to ensure the sustainable livelihoods of farmers.

关 键 词：农户二轮延包方式 选择意愿 生计资本 多元LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：F301.1[经济管理—产业经济]