开放经济条件下三类农业补贴政策的影响效应研究——基于农业开放DSGE模型  

The Effect of Three Types Agricultural Subsidy Policies Under the Condition of Open Economy:Based on the DSGE Model of Open Agriculture

作　　者：范帅邦 彭诗淳 FAN Shuai-bang;PENG Shi-chun(School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2024年第12期69-82,共14页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学基金重点项目“辽宁省农业补贴政策促进农业新质生产力形成的机理与对策研究”(L24AGL010)。

摘　　要：随着高水平对外开放的持续推进和农产品国际贸易环境的日趋复杂,厘清开放经济条件下农业补贴政策的影响效应对于保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本文基于农业开放DSGE模型,比较分析了开放经济条件下农业固定资本补贴政策、农业短期资本补贴政策和农地流转补贴政策的影响效应,并进一步阐释了“三量齐增”问题产生的深层原因。研究结果表明,农业固定资本补贴政策和农业短期资本补贴政策是激发农业生产潜力和促进农民增收的重要支持政策。然而,这两类补贴投入的持续增加也会引起农业生产成本的不断攀升和农产品比较优势的持续削弱,从而引起农产品进出口的结构失衡和“三量齐增”问题的进一步加剧。农地流转补贴政策能够有效促进农地流转,通过推动农业经营规模化,实现对农业生产要素资源配置结构的优化,是缓解农业生产成本上升压力和提高农产品比较优势的重要引导政策。因此,合理搭配使用各类农业补贴政策,构建以优化农业生产要素配置结构为目标的农业补贴政策体系是农业农村现代化顺利实现的关键政策保障。As the high‑level opening‑up continues to advance and the international trade environment of agricultural products becomes increasingly complex,agricultural subsidy policy,as an important guarantee to support and guide the sustainable and healthy development of agriculture,is of great significance to clarify its heterogeneous effects on agricultural trade under the conditions of the open economy for ensuring food security and effectively coping with risks.In existing research,there is not only a lack of research on the heterogeneity effect of agricultural subsidy policies and agricultural trade,but also a lack of theoretical analysis to reveal the effect of heterogeneous agricultural subsidy policies on agricultural trade.This paper constructs a DSGE model of an agricultural open economy,compares the effects of heterogeneous agricultural subsidy policies on agricultural productivity,agricultural production costs,agricultural prices,and agricultural trade structure under an open economy,and further analyzes the deep causes and logical context of the three simultaneous increases.The results show that the agricultural fixed capital subsidy policy and the agricultural short‑term capital subsidy policy are important supporting policies to stimulate the agricultural production potential and increase farmers’income.However,the continuous increase of the input of these two types of subsidy policies will cause the continuous rise of agricultural production costs and the continuous decline of the comparative advantage of agricultural products,which will cause the structural imbalance of agricultural imports and exports and the problem of three simultaneous increases.Agricultural land transfer subsidies can effectively promote agricultural land transfer,and optimize and upgrade the allocation structure of agricultural production factor resources by expanding the agricultural operation scale,so it is an important guiding policy to ease the pressure of rising agricultural production costs and improve the comparative a

关 键 词：农业补贴政策 农业生产成本 农产品价格 农业开放DSGE模型 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]