经济增长、机动化发展与道路交通安全风险  

Relationships between Economic growth,motorization and Road Traffic Safety Risks

作　　者：李宏[1] 夏聪明 LI Hong;XIA Congming(School of Public Administration,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《兰州交通大学学报》2024年第6期64-77,共14页Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“民生性财政支出的社会安全治理效应测度及其提升路径研究”(19BTJ043)。

摘　　要：随着经济与社会发展水平的持续提升,机动化发展进程的不断加快和道路交通的日益发达,在带来更多便利和促进增长的同时,也直接推动了道路交通安全风险的逐步扩张。为深入解析机动化发展、道路交通安全与经济增长之间的关系,本文使用了有权威统计以来的省域面板数据,通过两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)缓解内生性,并控制基础设施和自然条件、产业结构和城镇化、人口统计特征和政府干预等经济社会发展基本变量的影响,对机动化发展给道路交通安全风险带来的影响进行了实证检验。结果发现,机动化发展水平的提升,显著推动了我国道路交通事故损失的扩张,其对事故死亡率的弹性估计值在2.20~2.42左右,而针对事故直接财产损失的弹性估计值则在5.31~6.98左右。基于实证分析和讨论检验,本文提出应坚持多措并举和多主体参与、应对机动车保有量和交通基础设施进行有针对性的规划调节,以及应提高交通安全治理投入和重点关注不发达区域与农村地区等对策建议。As the economic and social development continues to develop,the accelerating process of motorization development and the increasing sophistication of road transportation have directly contributed to the gradual expansion of road traffic safety risks while bringing more conveniences and promoting growth.In order to deeply analyze the relationship between motorization development,road traffic safety and economic growth,this paper takes provincial panel dataof some authorita-tive statistics as reference,mitigates endogeneity through two-stage least squares(2SLS),and controls for the effects of bas-ic variables of economic and social development,such as infrastructure and natural conditions,industrial structure and urbani-zation,demographic characteristics,and governmental interventions,then conducts an in-depth analysis of the impact of mo-torization development on road in which the traffic safety risk is empirically tested.The results show that the improvement in the level of motorization has significantly driven the expansion of road traffic accident losses in China.The elastic-ity estimate for accident mortality rate is around 2.20 to 2.42,while the elasticity estimate for direct property losses from accidents is around 5.31 to 6.98.Based on empirical analysis and discussion,this article proposes that we should adhere to a combination of multiple measures and the participation of multiple stakeholders,implement targe-ted planning and adjustments for the number of motor vehicles and transportation infrastructure,increase investment in traffic safety governance,and focus on underdeveloped areas and rural areas.

关 键 词：机动化发展 经济增长 道路交通事故 发展与安全 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F50