征管信息化与财政收入预决算偏离——来自“金税三期”的证据  

Information-Based Tax Administration and Budget Deviation of Fiscal Revenue:Evidence from China's“Golden Tax Ⅲ”Project

作　　者：李培 蔡竹欣 黄志凡 LI Pei;CAI Zhuxin;HUANG Zhifan(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,310058;Department of Economics,University of Warwick,Coventry,CV47AL)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院 [2]英国华威大学经济系

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第5期57-71,共15页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72173115)。

摘　　要：本文基于“金税三期”工程这一准自然实验,利用2011—2016年中国地级市预决算数据,考察了征管信息化对财政收入预决算偏离的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,“金税三期”工程显著降低了财政收入预决算偏离度,该效果主要由该工程新增覆盖的税种所驱动,并且在互联网发展程度高、地方政府财政违规严重的地区尤其明显。机制分析表明,“金税三期”工程一方面缓解了财政无预算运行对预算管理的不利影响,另一方面促使财政收入序时进度偏离更趋平稳,企业间税负更趋公平。本研究对于推进落实以信息化驱动预算管理现代化的相关工作提供了有益的经验启示。In this study,our attention is directed toward examining the impact of information-based tax administration on revenue budget deviation.We employ the adoption of the“Golden Tax Ⅲ”project as a proxy for information-based tax administration reform,treating it as a quasi-natural experiment.We find that the reform reduced the deviation of the fiscal revenue budget by using data from administrative units at the prefectural level in China from 2011 to 2016.This effect is mainly propelled by the tax types newly covered by the project and is particularly evident in areas with high Internet penetration and serious fiscal irregularities of local governments.Mechanism analysis reveals that the primary factor contributing to the reduction in budget deviation is the enhancement of budget execution capacity.On the one hand,the reform alleviated the adverse impact on budget management in the non-budget periods.On the other hand,it stabilized the fluctuation of budget execution and created a more equitable tax environment for businesses.This study provides practical suggestions for promoting the implementation of modern budget management driven by informatization.

关 键 词：财政收入预决算偏离 信息化 金税三期 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F812.3