空气污染的经济代价——来自房地产市场的证据  

The Economic Cost of Air Pollution:Evidence from Real Estate Markets

作　　者：宋德勇[1,2] 文泽宙 马绍雄 SONG Deyong;WEN Zezhou;MA Shaoxiong(School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430074;Zhang Peigang Development Research Institute,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,430074)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院 [2]华中科技大学张培刚发展研究院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第5期148-163,共16页China Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA050);华中科技大学文科双一流建设项目基金资助(张培刚研究院建设项目)。

摘　　要：本文讨论了中国一个严重的环境问题——城市空气污染,其不仅损害了居民健康,也造成了家庭财富积累损失,对中国北方城市影响更甚。我们以多种空气污染物和城市房价面板数据为研究样本,将秦岭—淮河线以北冬季集中供暖政策作为准自然实验,运用地理断点回归方法深入探讨了空气污染对城市房价的影响。结果表明,空气污染与城市房价之间呈显著负相关关系,即空气污染抑制了城市房价上涨。PM2.5浓度平均增加1个单位,房价将贬值1.50%,导致样本期内全国经济价值平均损失约1008.9794亿元。异质性分析结果表明,空气污染对房价的抑制作用在基础设施条件差、市场化程度高且规模较小的城市表现尤为明显。此外,本文创新性地从供需两个方面挖掘了空气污染影响房价的潜在机制,结果证实空气污染主要通过影响人口迁移和土地价格等途径对房价产生负向作用。本研究有助于提高公众关于空气污染对城市房价资本化影响的理解和为改善空气质量的支付意愿,以及为政府制定空气治理公共政策提供依据。This paper discusses a serious environmental problem in China—urban air pollution,which not only harms the health of residents,but also causes loss of household wealth accumulation,with an even greater impact on cities in northern China.Taking a variety of air pollutants and urban housing price panel data as research sample,we use the centralized winter heating policy north of the Qinling-Huaihe River line as a quasi-natural experiment,and employ geographic regression discontinuity to explore in depth the impact of air pollution on urban housing prices.The results indicate that there is a significant negative correlation between air pollution and urban housing prices,that is,air pollution inhibits the rise of urban housing prices.With an average increase of 1 unit in PM2.5 concentration,housing prices will depreciate by 1.50%,resulting in an average loss of about 100897.94 million yuan in national economic value during the sample period.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the inhibitory effect of air pollution on housing prices is more pronounced in cities with poor infrastructure,high degree of marketization and small scale.In addition,this paper innovatively explores the potential mechanisms of air pollution affecting housing prices from both supply and demand perspectives,and the findings confirm that air pollution mainly has a negative impact on housing prices through factors such as population migration and land prices.This research helps to improve the public's understanding of the impact of air pollution on the capitalization of urban housing prices,the willingness to pay for improving air quality,and provide a basis for the government to formulate public policies for air governance.

关 键 词：空气污染 城市房价 断点回归 集中供暖 财富损失 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]