“南下”还是“西进”——外部冲击下的企业区位选择  

"Going South"or"Going West"——Enterprise Location Choices under External Shocks

作　　者：李芳华 王丽媛 Li Fanghua;Wang Liyuan

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2024年第11期24-46,204,205,共25页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：面对全球产业链供应链加速重构,准确理解外部冲击下企业空间布局的调整及其决定因素,对于我国有效推动产业向战略腹地转移,提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平具有重要意义。构建结合贸易成本和生产成本的企业跨期选址决策理论模型,并以2018年中美贸易摩擦作为准自然实验,使用微观层面的上市公司数据进行实证研究。研究结果验证了单边贸易成本的上升同时推动我国企业的对外转移(“南下”)和向国内腹地转移(“西进”),但贸易成本对前者的影响规模和持续时间显著小于后者。企业的贴现率与预期、对美进口的依赖度以及对美出口的依赖度是决定企业空间布局的主要因素。从长期经营绩效来看,“西进”策略比“南下”策略在抵御外部冲击方面更具优势。Faced with the accelerated restructuring of global industrial and supply chains,understanding how enterprises adjust their spatial layouts under external shocks is critical for China's efforts to guide industrial relocation to strategic hinterlands and strengthen industrial and supply chain resilience and security.This study develops a theoretical framework of enterprise intertemporal location decisions,using the 2018 US-China trade frictions as a quasi-natural experiment,and micro-level data from listed companies for empirical analysis.Findings confirm that rising unilateral trade costs drive both the outward relocation("going south")and domestic hinterland relocation("going west")of Chinese enterprises,though the scale and duration of the latter's impact are significantly greater.Key determinants of spatial layout include enterprises'discount rates,expectations,reliance on US imports,and dependence on US-bound exports.In terms of long-term operational performance,the"going west"strategy proves more advantageous than"going south"in mitigating external shocks.

关 键 词：中美贸易摩擦 贸易壁垒 产业外迁 战略腹地 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学] F752.7F757.12