我国国内旅游业复苏趋势预测  

Forecast of the Recovery Trend in China's Domestic Tourism Industry

作　　者：谢佳春 崔鑫茹 李宗璞 Xie Jiachun;Cui Xinru;Li Zongpu(Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming,650221,Yunnan)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《中国商论》2024年第23期51-55,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划研究项目“西南边疆民族地区农民数字素养促进农业新质生产力的作用机制与实现路径研究”(24XJA790004);云南省科技厅科技计划基础研究专项面上项目“基于政策文献量化分析的自由贸易试验区数字贸易发展与提升路径研究”(202301AT070418);云南省兴滇英才支持计划青年人才专项项目“数字乡村视角下乡村数字经济与乡村振兴的耦合协调发展研究”(XDYC-QNRC-2022-0519);云南省研究生优质课程“时间序列分析”项目。

摘　　要：本文利用时间序列SARIMA和Holt-Winters模型,对我国2011—2019年国内旅游总人数季度数据进行模型拟合,从而预测2020—2026年旅游总人数。结果表明,随着经济环境的改善和政策支持,旅游市场逐渐复苏,国内旅游总人数呈现明显的季节性波动。本文对中国旅游业的复苏进程进行定量分析,揭示了当前旅游业市场的复苏趋势与面临的挑战,为优化旅游振兴政策、调整市场策略及资源配置提供数据支持,并进行合理优化,旨在促进国内旅游业实现可持续发展。This paper utilizes the time series SARIMA and Holt-Winters model to fit the model to the quarterly data of the total number of domestic tourists in China from 2011-2019,so as to forecast the total number of tourists from 2020-2026.The results show that with the improvement of the economic environment and policy support,the tourism market gradually recovers,and the total number of domestic tourists shows obvious seasonal fluctuations.This paper quantitatively analyzes the recovery process of China's tourism industry,reveals the current recovery trend and challenges faced by the tourism market,and provides data support for optimizing tourism revitalization policies,adjusting market strategies and resource allocation,and making reasonable optimization,aiming to promote the domestic tourism industry to achieve sustainable development.

关 键 词：国内旅游总人数 SARIMA模型 Holt-Winters模型 旅游业 旅游经济 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]