货币政策与经济政策不确定性冲击下区域经济变动——以长江经济带为例  

Regional Economic Fluctuations Under Monetary Policy and Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks:Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：胡云飞 HU Yunfei(Business School,Shanghai Normal University Tianhua College)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学天华学院商学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2024年第10期3-17,共15页Finance Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以全球城市为核心的巨型城市群引领双循环发展研究”(22&ZD067)。

摘　　要：本文以货币政策与经济政策不确定性作为外生冲击变量,构建面板数据SVAR模型,并将2017—2022年长江经济带11个省(直辖市)的月度数据划分为两个时间段,评估不同货币政策环境下产出、消费、通货膨胀、对外贸易以及工业企业收入的动态反应,并进一步探讨了中国经济政策不确定性的影响。研究显示,货币政策冲击显著影响了产出、消费、对外贸易及工业企业收入;短期内,货币政策冲击的影响力度超过了经济政策不确定性冲击的影响。此外,采用价格型规则更有助于平衡外部冲击对产出等经济变量的影响。特别是在2020—2022年期间,相较于货币供给冲击,基于价格型规则的利率冲击对产出、消费、对外贸易和工业企业收入的正向作用更为显著,而货币供给冲击则通常对产出和消费等指标产生负面影响。受限于货币政策传导机制,扩张性的数量型规则会产生负面效果,而价格型规则展现出积极效果。本文结论有助于政策制定者深入理解不同地区对货币政策和经济政策不确定性冲击的响应差异,从而制定更加有效的宏观经济政策。This paper examines the impact of monetary policy and economic policy uncertainty as exogenous shock variables by constructing a panel data SVAR model.Using monthly data from 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2017 to 2022,the study divides the sample into two time periods to assess the dynamic responses of output,consumption,inflation,trade,and industrial enterprise revenue under different monetary policy environments.The paper further explores the influence of China's economic policy uncertainty.The findings reveal that monetary policy shocks significantly affect output,consumption,trade,and industrial enterprise revenue.In the short term,the impact of monetary policy shocks on output,consumption,trade,and industrial enterprise revenue surpasses that of economic policy uncertainty shocks.Moreover,adopting price-based rules proves more effective in balancing the effects of external shocks on economic variables such as output.In particular,during the period from 2020 to 2022,interest rate shocks based on price-based rules had a more pronounced positive effect on output,consumption,trade,and industrial enterprise revenue compared to money supply shocks,which usually exerts a negative impact on output and consumption.Due to the constraints of the monetary policy transmission mechanism,expansionary quantity-based rules tend to produce negative effects,whereas price-based rules demonstrate positive outcomes.The conclusions of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers to better understand the regional differences in responses to monetary policy and economic policy uncertainty shocks,enabling them to formulate more effective macroeconomic policies.

关 键 词：货币政策 经济政策不确定性 长江经济带 区域经济 价格型规则 数量型规则 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]