“保险+期货”模式能实施大规模财政补贴吗?  

Is the“insurance+futures”mode suitable for large-scale fiscal subsidies?

作　　者：余方平 王选鹤[2] 刘宇 YU Fang-ping;WANG Xuan-he;LIU Yu(School of Maritime Economics and Management,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China;School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China;Financial Accounting Department,National Financial Regulatory Administration,Beijing 100140,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院,大连116026 [2]东北财经大学金融学院,大连116025 [3]国家金融监督管理总局财务会计司,北京100140

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2024年第10期144-158,共15页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72072018);国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BJY262);国家社会科学基金资助重点项目(22ATJ005);中国博士后科学基金特别资助(站中)项目(2021T140081);中国期货业协会联合研究计划资助项目(201921044);辽宁省教育厅基本科研资助面上项目(LJKMR20221585)。

摘　　要：始于2015年农产品“保险+期货”模式迅速在全国铺开,引发实行财政补贴支持的广泛呼吁.鉴于国内农产品期货市场流动性的限制,本研究针对该模式下财政补贴的规模与方法进行了深入探讨.以玉米为研究对象,首先建立了期货市场流动性约束下的财政补贴量化理论模型.实证分析基于2016年玉米临时收储政策改革后的数据,发现玉米期货市场对“保险+期货”模式的可承载规模极为有限,仅占全国总产量的14.4%,表明该模式暂时不宜进行大规模财政补贴.研究进一步提出了分步骤、分地区、分阶段的财政补贴实施策略,并建议配套相应的措施.Since 2015,the agricultural“insurance+futures”mode has rapidly spread across the country,triggering widespread calls for financial subsidy support.In view of the liquidity constraints in the domestic agricultural futures market,this study conducts an in-depth discussion on the scale and method of financial subsidies for the“insurance+futures”mode.Taking corn as the research object,this paper first establishes a quantitative theoretical model of financial subsidies under liquidity constraints in the futures market.Based on the data after the reform of temporary corn purchase and storage policy in 2016,the empirical analysis finds that the carrying scale of the corn futures market for the“insurance+futures”mode is extremely limited,accounting for only 14.4%of the national total output.This indicates that the mode is not suitable for large-scale financial subsidies for the time being.The study further puts forward the implementation strategy of financial subsidies by steps,regions and stages,and suggests corresponding supporting measures.

关 键 词：“保险+期货”模式 玉米 财政补贴 流动性约束 

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