服务业制造业融合与“鲍莫尔病”陷阱跨越:中国经验与世界规律  

Service-Manufacturing Integration and the"Baumol's Disease"Trap:Experience from China and Global Patterns

作　　者：张鹏杨 叶田 乔小勇[1] 祝合良 ZHANG Pengyang;YE Tian;QIAO Xiaoyong;ZHU Heliang(Beijing University of Technology,100124)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,100124

出　　处：《财贸经济》2024年第12期124-142,共19页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“世界动荡变革期中国企业全球供应链韧性的测度与提升路径研究”(22YJA790089);国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球生产网络下贸易保护政策实施的协同性研究:成因、效果与治理”(72273009)。

摘　　要：服务业生产率相比制造业增长缓慢是“鲍莫尔病”的症结所在,实现服务业与制造业融合或将是解决该问题的重要手段。本文主要借助中国税收调查数据及OECD-ICIO投入产出数据,研究了服务业对制造业投入在提升服务业相对生产率和跨越“鲍莫尔病”陷阱中的作用。同时,还使用跨国数据对该问题的世界规律进行了验证。研究发现:(1)服务业对制造业投入程度增加提升了我国服务业相对生产率,也缓解了两业工资成本差距,促进了“鲍莫尔病”陷阱跨越;(2)服务业对高技术制造业、对发达国家制造业投入更能提升服务业相对生产率,相比生活性服务业,生产性服务业对制造业投入能显著提升服务业相对生产率;(3)服务业对制造业投入水平提升强化了服务业的(相对)竞争效应、规模效应和创新效应,这是促进服务业相对生产率提升的重要机制;(4)利用跨国数据的分析也表明服务业对制造业投入存在提升服务业相对生产率的作用,这也为“鲍莫尔病”陷阱跨越提供了世界性规律。Since 2012,the service sector in China has outpaced manufacturing,marking the transition to the era of a service-based economy.While the service sector emerges as a new engine of economic growth,we should be alert to the trap of"Baumol's Disease,"which refers to the co-existence of a declining manufacturing sector and slow productivity improvements in the service sector.This can lead to labor moving from high-productivity manufacturing jobs to lower-productivity service jobs,ultimately hindering economic growth and social progress.The low productivity of the service sector relative to the productivity of the manufacturing industry is the crux of the industrial transformation of the"Baumol's Disease"At present,while the service sector is growing,productivity enhancements have not kept pace,indicating challenges in the"backward-looking"industrial transformation and development process.At the same time,the integration of manufacturing and service industries is becoming more and more critical.Thus,finding ways to advance the service sector while simultaneously boosting its productivity to avoid the"Baumol's Disease"trap is essential.This paper studies how the integration of the service and manufacturing sectors impacts the relative productivity of the service sector.It finds that first,investments from the service sector into manufacturing have a positive effect on the relative productivity of the service sector and can reduce its relative wage cost.Second,increased investments in manufacturing promote(relative)competition,scale effects and innovation within the service sector,serving as key mechanisms through which this integration raises the relative productivity of services.Third,service inputs in manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in developed countries have in turn led to more pronounced relative productivity effects in the service sector,with producer services having a more obvious impact than those related to consumer services.Fourthly,the same conclusions are still obtained in cross-country analyses,pr

关 键 词：产业融合 “鲍莫尔病”陷阱 服务业相对生产率 中国税收调查数据 世界规律 

分 类 号：F719[经济管理—产业经济]