虚情假意的联盟:土耳其对北约政策选择的政治动力  

A False Alliance:The Political Dynamics of Turkey's Policy Choices Toward NATO

作　　者：刘中民[1] 庄安林 LIU Zhongmin;ZHUANG Anlin

机构地区：[1]上海外国语大学中东研究所,上海200083 [2]上海外国语大学国际关系与公共事务学院、中东研究所,上海200083

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2024年第6期73-100,I0003,I0004,共30页Foreign Affairs Review

基　　金：2022年教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“百年变局下国际体系与中东地区互动关系研究”(项目编号:22JJD810023)的阶段性成果;2023年上海外国语大学校级重大科研项目“当代中东国家对外关系史研究”(项目编号:2023114005)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：土耳其加入北约70多年来,双方关系起伏不定,时而密切合作,时而龃龉不断。在土耳其与北约的联盟关系中,合作与斗争相互交织,并对北约的联盟管理构成了严峻的挑战。根据新古典现实主义理论,土耳其对北约政策的多变性是国际体系压力和国内精英共识共同驱动的产物。体系压力决定土耳其对北约外交政策选择的空间,而精英共识则影响土耳其对北约外交政策选择的强度。前者受国际体系结构的影响,后者受到领导人、政党和军方的影响。两种因素的不同组合构成了土耳其对北约政策的多样性选择。当体系压力大、精英共识一致时,土耳其倾向于对北约采取追随政策;当体系压力大、精英共识不一致时,土耳其倾向于对北约采取妥协政策;当体系压力小、精英共识不一致时,土耳其倾向于对北约采取对抗政策;当体系压力小、精英共识一致时,土耳其倾向于对北约采取投机政策。部署“朱庇特”导弹、应对塞浦路斯危机、处理库尔德问题和引进“S-400”导弹,成为验证土耳其对北约追随、妥协、对抗、投机政策的典型案例。在当前国际政治剧烈变动和土耳其国内政治深刻调整的背景下,土耳其对北约政策在不同议题上仍将呈现出差异性特征。Since Turkey became a member of NATO over 70 years ago,the relationship between the two sides has been fluctuating amidst close cooperation and frequent discords,which poses a severe challenge to NATO's alliance management.According to neoclassical realism,the variability of Turkey's policy toward NATO is a product driven by both the pressure of the international system and the consensus of the domestic elites.Systemic pressure determines the space of Turkey's foreign policy choices toward NATO,and elite consensus affects the intensity of its policy choices.Systemic pressure is influenced by the structure of the international system,while elite consensus is influenced by leaders,party politics and the military.The different combination of the two factors generates Turkey's diverse policies toward NATO.When the systemic pressure is high and the elite consensus is consistent,Turkey tends to adopt a follower policy;when the systemic pressure is high and the elite consensus is inconsistent,Turkey tends to adopt a policy of compromise;when the systemic pressure is low and the elite consensus is inconsistent,Turkey tends to adopt a confrontational policy;when the systemic pressure is low and elite consensus is consistent,Turkey tends to adopt a speculative policy.The deployment of Jupiter missiles,the response to the Cyprus crisis,the handling of the Kurdish issue and the deployment of“S-400”missiles constitute typical cases that verify Turkey's follower,compromising,confrontational or speculative policy towards NATO.Therefore,against the backdrop of drastic changes in international politics and profound adjustments in Turkey's domestic politics,Turkey's policies towards NATO will continue to vary on different issues.

关 键 词：土耳其 北约 外交政策 体系压力 精英共识 联盟管理 

分 类 号：D837.4[政治法律—政治学] E161[政治法律—外交学] D815[军事—军事理论]