大国竞争、联盟体系困境与美国亚欧联盟联结  

Great Power Competition,Alliance System Dilemma and the Connection of America's Alliance Systems in Asia and Europe

作　　者：魏冰 WEI Bing

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院,北京100089

出　　处：《外交评论（外交学院学报）》2024年第6期101-128,I0004,I0005,共30页Foreign Affairs Review

摘　　要：当前,在同时将中国和俄罗斯认定为战略竞争对手的背景下,美国积极推动其亚洲联盟和欧洲联盟进行联结。但美国亚欧联盟联结也将强化中国和俄罗斯的共同威胁认知、为两国提升安全合作注入动力,这反而会增强美国的战略压力。正是在这一战略大背景下,美国执意推动亚欧联盟联结问题便值得深入探讨。事实上,由大国竞争导致的联盟体系困境,即联盟体系在实现整体强化与维持可靠性之间的平衡困境,是导致美国积极推动亚欧联盟联结的主要动因。在同时与中俄两个大国对手开展竞争的情况下,美国及其盟友均面临“被抛弃”与“被牵连”的双重风险。美国既需要借助盟友的力量和资源进行竞争,又不希望因盟友的挑衅而卷入冲突,而美国盟友则既需要争取美国的安全保障,又不希望卷入与大国的直接冲突中。此时,传统的联盟强化策略难以维系联盟可靠性。相反,联盟联结则能够通过提升竞争优势、降低安全成本和强化联盟约束三条路径,在实现联盟强化和维持联盟可靠性的同时,以低成本的方式满足美国的战略需求。然而,亚欧联盟联结也将促进美国主要盟友间的合作、提升其在联盟中的议价能力,最终可能削弱美国在联盟体系中的主导地位。In the context of simultaneously designating China and Russia as strategic competitors,the U.S.is actively promoting the connection of its Asian and European alliances.However,the connection of the U.S.alliances in Asia and Europe will heighten the common external threat perception of China and Russia,thus providing impetus for enhanced security cooperation between the two countries and increasing strategic pressure on the U.S..It is in this strategic context that the U.S.insistence on promoting the connection of its Asian and European alliances is worth exploring in depth.In fact,the primary motivation of the U.S.endeavor is the alliance system dilemma caused by great power competition,i.e.,balancing overall alliance strengthening endeavors with needs to maintain alliance reliability.In the context of competing with both China and Russia,the U.S.and its allies face the dual risk of“abandonment”and“entrapment”.The U.S.needs the power and resources of its allies to compete but does not want to be drawn into conflicts provoked by these allies;similarly,U.S.allies seek its security guarantees but do not wish to be involved in direct conflict between great powers.Under these circumstances,conventional strategies for strengthening alliances are insufficient to maintain their reliability.However,Connecting alliances can achieve both alliance strengthening and reliability by enhancing competitive advantages,reducing security costs,and reinforcing alliance's constraining power,all while meeting US strategic needs at a relatively low cost.Despite the above benefits,connecting its alliances in Asia and Europe will promote cooperation among key U.S.allies and thus enhance their bargaining power in the alliance,which may ultimately undermine the U.S.dominant position in the alliance system.

关 键 词：联盟困境 联盟联结 美国联盟战略 北约亚太化 亚太版北约 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D815[政治法律—外交学]