An Uncertainty Analysis of the Newmark Displacement Model for Earthquake-Induced Landslides in the Jiuzhaigou National Geopark  

作　　者：Guochao Fu Hua Pan Jiang Cheng 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing,100081,China

出　　处：《Journal of Earth Science》2024年第6期1998-2012,共15页地球科学学刊（英文版）

摘　　要：In this paper,we present an approach to generating probabilistic hazard maps for earthquake-induced landslides using the Newmark Displacement Model(NDM).This model takes the uncertainties associated with the slope properties(e.g.,soil shear strengths,groundwater table location)into consideration,which is coupled with the hydrological model based on geomorphological,geological,geotechnical,seismological,and rainfall data.Uncertainties and fluctuations in the input parameters of the NDM are considered by treating these quantities asβ-PERT distributions through Monte Carlo techniques,which allows probability value of the NDM to be cast into hazard maps.Additionally,incorporating Monte Carlo techniques can avoid using conservative input parameters in a deterministic approach to capture these uncertainties.Taking the 2017 Jiuzhaigou M_(w)6.5 Earthquake in Sichuan Province,Western China as an example,earthquake-induced landslides probability distribution map is generated with the most appropriate displacement threshold(λ=1 cm).Our results show good performances for realistic landslide hazard assessment,which can serve as a basis for providing a reference for the prediction of earthquake-induced landslide probability and rapid landslide hazard assessment after a strong earthquake.

关 键 词：EARTHQUAKES LANDSLIDES Monte Carlo Beta-PERT distribution Newmark Displacement Model Tibet Plateau 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] P642.22[天文地球—固体地球物理学]