Forecasting and mapping dengue fever epidemics in China: a spatiotemporal analysis  

作　　者：Hongyan Ren Nankang Xu 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China [2]College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2024年第4期14-28,共15页贫困所致传染病（英文）

基　　金：HY R received the financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant NO.42071136,Grant NO.41571158).

摘　　要：Background Dengue fever(DF)has emerged as a significant public health concern in China.The spatiotemporal patterns and underlying influencing its spread,however,remain elusive.This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the city-level risk of DF epidemics in China.Methods We analyzed the frequency,intensity,and distribution of DF cases in China from 2003 to 2022 and evalu-ated 11 natural and socioeconomic factors as potential drivers.Using the random forest(RF)model,we assessed the contributions of these factors to local DF epidemics and predicted the corresponding city-level risk.Results Between 2003 and 2022,there was a notable correlation between local and imported DF epidemics in case numbers(r=0.41,P<0.01)and affected cities(r=0.79,P<0.01).With the increase in the frequency and intensity of imported epidemics,local epidemics have become more severe.Their occurrence has increased from five to eight months per year,with case numbers spanning from 14 to 6641 per month.The spatial distribution of city-level DF epidemics aligns with the geographical divisions defined by the Huhuanyong Line(Hu Line)and Qin Mountain-Huai River Line(Q-H Line)and matched well with the city-level time windows for either mosquito vector activity(83.59%)or DF transmission(95.74%).The RF models achieved a high performance(AUC=0.92)when considering the time windows.Importantly,they identified imported cases as the primary influencing factor,contributing significantly(24.82%)to local DF epidemics at the city level in the eastern region of the Hu Line(E-H region).Moreover,imported cases were found to have a linear promoting impact on local epidemics,while five climatic and six socioeconomic factors exhibited nonlinear effects(promoting or inhibiting)with varying inflection values.Additionally,this model demonstrated outstanding accuracy(hitting ratio=95.56%)in predicting the city-level risks of local epidemics inChina.Conclusions China is experiencing an increasing occurrence of sporadic local DF epidemics

关 键 词：Dengue fever Imported case INEVITABILITY Occasionality Time window Random forest China 

分 类 号：TP181[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] R512.8[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程] R181[医药卫生—内科学]