“B队传统”与“威胁通胀”:美国总统对外情报顾问委员会遏苏活动研究  

"Team-B Tradition"and"Threat Inflation":The Containment Strategy and Activities of U.S.President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board Activities Against USSR

作　　者：赵水静 忻怿 Zhao Shuijing;Xin Yi(School of Humanities,Xidian University,Xi’an 710126;Department of History and Culture,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学人文学院,西安710126 [2]陕西师范大学历史文化学院,西安710119

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第12期57-64,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：西安电子科技大学学科交叉拓展特支计划项目“美苏战略稳定机制运行及其对华启示研究”(编号:TZJH2024073);国家社会科学基金青年项目“美国对华安全战略研究(1969-2001)”(编号:21CSS002)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]总统对外情报顾问委员会是共和党鹰派干预情报评估和国家安全战略制定的重要平台,20世纪70年代中期重组后着力强化遏苏战略,祭起对苏新冷战。委员会夸大苏联军力,制造所谓“脆弱之窗”叙事,显著恶化“威胁通胀”现象,考察其活动对透析美国情报文化和国家安全战略特质、警示中美关系具有重要价值。[研究方法]借助解密史料及情报学知识,考察此类夸大外部威胁、追求绝对安全的情报评估方法,提炼总统对外情报顾问委员会政治化情报评估、挤压中情局的“B队传统”。[研究结论]总统对外情报顾问委员会增加了美国情报评估的内部竞争和组织效能,强化了遏苏战略的凌厉竞争特质,但其周期性掀起“威胁通胀”导致美国错判外部威胁、陷入过度扩张。消弭“威胁通胀”与“B队传统”是革新美国情报文化、构筑大国战略稳定的必由之路。[Research purpose]The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board was the key platform of the Republican hawks to intervene the intelligence assessment and strategy towards the Soviet Union.During 1970s,it became the main force to end the strategic stability between the U.S.and the USSR and then launched the New Cold War against USSR.The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board focused on exaggerating the Soviet military power and set off the"Threat Inflation"phenomena.It is of great value to explore the ideas and actions of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board for the understanding of American intelligence culture and national security strategy and it is useful to alert China-U.S.relations.[Research method]With the help of declassified historical materials and knowledge of intelligence science,this paper looks into such intelligence assessment methods that exaggerate external threats and pursue absolute security,and extracts the so-called"Team-B Tradition"of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board politicizing intelligence assessment and squeezing the CIA's influence.[Research conclusion]The Team-B tradition has increased the internal competition of American intelligence assessment and promoted the quality of containment strategy,but the periodic"Threat Inflation"has led the United States get into overexpansion and misjudge of the external threats.Eliminating"Threat Inflation"and"Team-B Tradition"is the key to avoid intelligence politicization and promote multilateral strategic stability.

关 键 词：总统对外情报顾问委员会 情报评估 情报政治化 美苏关系 威胁通胀 B队传统 情报史 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]