美国国防部智库在大国竞争中的作用研究--以(美国防部)净评估办公室为例  

Study on the Role of Military Think Tank of U.S.Department of Defense in Major Country Competition:A Case Study of the Office of Net Assessment

作　　者：雷磊 梁天 Lei Lei;Liang Tian(College of International Studies,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第12期71-79,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010);国防科技大学精品课建设项目研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]研究美国国防部智库净评估办公室的发展,以及其在美国大国竞争中的做法与作用,分析其在首任主任安德鲁·马歇尔卸任后的衰落,对我建设高端军事智库具有参考价值。[研究方法]梳理净评估办公室的发展历程,总结净评估办公室的主要做法,探究其在美国大国竞争中发挥的作用。[研究结论]净评估办公室的主要做法有立足对手抢占战略先手、提出问题引发战略思考、全面评估完善战略决策、独立评估保持战略清醒、情报特权塑造战略胜势5个方面;对美国在大国竞争中起到的帮助作用主要在组织国家层面的净评估、充当国防部长的参谋助手、帮助美国赢得长期战略竞争、推动美军“新军事革命”4个方面。其衰落主要表现为净评估产品质量下降、国防部长信任不再以及情报特权难以为继3个方面。[Research purpose]By studying the development of the Office of Net Assessment(ONA),a think tank of the U.S.Department of Defense,reviewing its practices and roles in major country competition for the United States and analyzing its decline after the resignation of Andrew Marshall,the first Director of the ONA,the research provides a critical reference for the construction of Chinese high-end military think tanks.[Research method]This paper combs through the development of the ONA,summarizes its major measures and explores its role in the major country competition for the U.S.[Research conclusion]Major practices of the ONA can be summarized as the following 5 aspects,seizing strategic opportunities through being in the rivals shoes,arousing strategic thinking through raising questions,improving strategic decision-making ability through all-round assessment,maintaining strategic focus through independent evaluation,shaping favorable strategic situation via intelligence privilege.Roles of the ONA for the U.S.in major country competition can be concluded as the following 4 aspects,organizing net assessment on the national level,acting as staff member for the Secretary of Defense,helping the U.S.win the long-term strategic competition and promoting the Revolution in the Military Affairs of the U.S.armed forces.Its decline involves 3 aspects:degradation of the Net Assessment products,broken trust from the Secretary of Defense and inability to maintain its intelligence privilege.

关 键 词：军事智库 大国竞争 净评估 净评估办公室 国家战略 美国 

分 类 号：E161[军事—军事理论]