面向概率语言偏好的多重网络舆情事件风险研判模型  

Multiple Network Public Opinion Event Risk Analysis Model for Probabilistic Language Preference

作　　者：陈淼 朱建军[1] Chen Miao;Zhu Jianjun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106;School of Management Engineering,Xuzhou University of Technology,Xuzhou 221018)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106 [2]徐州工程学院管理工程学院,徐州221018

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第12期142-151,197,共11页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“三元群智信息交互驱动的突发公共事件动态应急群决策方法与应用”(编号:72071106)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]为完善网络舆情风险研判模型,考虑多重网络舆情事件动态演变复杂性及信任网络群决策环境下专家共识达成等问题,构建面向概率语言偏好的多重网络舆情事件风险研判模型。[研究方法]采用概率语言术语集刻画舆情风险指标信息的模糊性与不确定性,定义考虑犹豫度的PLTSs距离计算公式,以测度专家共识指数;提出基于信任-奖惩的专家意见修正和权重重置的双重反馈机制共识模型,以形成合理集体评价意见;将后悔理论融入到群决策方法中,得到舆情事件的综合风险感知效用值。[研究结论]通过算例验证了该模型的适用性和稳定性,结果表明该舆情风险模型能够直观展示多重网络舆情事件的风险排序,可为舆情监管部门提供良好的决策支持。[Research purpose]To improve the network public opinion risk assessment model,considering the complexity of dynamic cross-evolution of multiple network public opinion events and expert consensus reaching under the environment of trust network group decision-making,a probabilistic language preference oriented multiple network public opinion event risk assessment model is constructed.[Research method]A probabilistic language term set is used to describe the fuzziness and uncertainty of public opinion risk indicators,and a PLTSs distance calculation formula considering the degree of hesitation is defined to measure the expert consensus index.A consensus model based on the dual feedback mechanism of expert opinion correction and weight reset based on trust-reward and punishment is proposed to form reasonable collective evaluation opinions.The regret theory is integrated into the group decision making method,and the comprehensive risk perceived utility value of public opinion events is obtained.[Research conclusion]The applicability and stability of the model are verified by a numerical example.The results show that the public opinion risk model can intuitively display the risk ranking of multiple network public opinion events,and can provide better decision support for public opinion supervision departments.

关 键 词：多重网络舆情事件 风险研判 舆情治理 概率语言术语集 距离测度 信任-奖惩双重反馈机制 后悔理论 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]