“亚洲版北约”的历史脉络、现实争议与前景展望  

The Historical Context,Disputes and Prospect of“Asian Version of NATO”

作　　者：项昊宇 XIANG Haoyu

机构地区：[1]中国国际问题研究院亚太研究所,北京100005

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第6期1-17,143,共18页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

摘　　要：冷战以来,受制于亚太地区复杂的现实情况和美国盟友的内部分歧,美国主导的“亚洲版北约”构想几经沉浮。随着美国加快推动“印太战略”,整合全球同盟体系,亚太地区大国竞争烈度上升,围绕“亚洲版北约”的讨论再度升温。由日本新任首相石破茂所提“亚洲版北约”主张遇阻事件可见,这一构想仍面临地区国家安全利益和诉求不一致、美国政策意愿不足、美盟伴国内制约、地区各国强烈反对等多重阻力。短期内在亚太地区复制北约模式的集体安全架构的条件尚不具备。但在美国“联盟遏华”的战略指针下,“亚太北约化”和“北约亚太化”进程可能持续推进,“亚洲版北约”恐呈现渐进式发展,对中国维护亚太战略安全利益、运筹周边外交构成重大潜在挑战。Since the Cold War,the U.S.-led idea of an“Asian version of NATO”has floundered several times,constrained by the complex realities of the Asia-Pacific region and the internal differences among the U.S.allies.As the U.S.accelerated the promotion of the“Indo-Pacific strategy”,the Asia-Pacific region,the intensity of competition among the major powers increased,the discussion around the“Asian version of NATO”heated up again.However,from the new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s proposal of“Asian version of NATO”,it can be seen that this idea is still lack of the basis for realization.This article argues that the idea faces multiple obstacles,such as inconsistencies in the security interests and aspirations of regional countries,insufficient U.S.policy willingness,constraints imposed by domestic politics,laws and public opinion of the U.S.allies and strong opposition from ASEAN and other regional countries,and it will be impossible to replicate NATO-modelled collective security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region in the short term.The conditions for replicating the NATO model of collective security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region are not yet in place,and the“Asian version of NATO”is still not a realistic policy option for the U.S.and its major allies.Looking ahead,under the U.S.strategic guideline of‘alliance to curb China’,the processes of‘Asia-Pacific NATOisation’and‘NATO Asia-Pacificisation’may continue to advance.If the‘Asian version of NATO’,which is based on the U.S.bilateral alliances and smallscale multilateral cooperation,shows progressive development,it may constitute a continuous disturbance to the process of regional solidarity,cooperation and integration,as well as a major potential challenge to China’s safeguarding of its strategic security interests in the Asia-Pacific region and the management of its neighbourhood diplomacy.

关 键 词：亚洲版北约 亚太安全 印太战略 美国同盟体系 联盟政治 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D815.5[政治法律—外交学]