美国拜登政府的战略遗产——“一体化威慑”战略及其对亚太安全的影响  

The Strategic Legacy of the Biden Administration:“Integrated Deterrence”Strategy and Its Impact on Asia-Pacific Security

作　　者：刘新华 LIU Xinhua

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学哲学院、国际问题研究所,武汉430073

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第6期18-36,144,共20页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

基　　金：中南财经政法大学科研平台基地建设项目“国家安全与国家治理研究”(2722022FJ033)。

摘　　要：在世界地缘形势日益复杂和信息技术飞速发展的背景下,作为美国拜登政府国防战略基础和重要战略遗产的“一体化威慑”战略,强调通过跨领域、跨地区、跨层级、跨政府部门、跨盟友与伙伴等“一体化”措施和核力量,实现有效威慑。“一体化威慑”涉及不同层次,综合军民和核常两用、地理空间、冲突层级、国内国际等诸多手段,重视以人工智能等高新技术为引领。在中美战略博弈形势下,“一体化威慑”战略意在增强美国既有军事优势,遏制中国的意图明显;刺激以军备竞赛为核心的全方位竞争,不利于亚太地区安全稳定,与时代潮流背道而驰。由于战略资源和战略协调能力制约、盟友能力参差不齐、亚太地区大多数中小国家持中立政策以及中国实力增长等因素,“一体化威慑”战略难以达成。In the context of the increasingly complex world geopolitical situation and the rapid progress of information technology,the“integrated deterrence”strategy,which is the basis of the national defense strategy and the strategic legacy of the Biden administration.It emphasizes the integration across domains,regions,spectrum of conflict,the U.S.Government,and allies and partners and the use of nuclear forces.“Integrated deterrence”involves different deterrence,such as deterrence by denial、resilience,direct and collective cost imposition,tailored deterrence,etc.It integrates military and civilian,nuclear and conventional forces,geospatial space,spectrum of conflict,domestic and international means,emphasizing the leadership of high-tech technologies such as artificial intelligence.The strategy of“integrated deterrence”will enhance the existing military advantages of the U.S.,stimulate all-round competition with arms race at its core,which is not conducive to the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region and the development of China-U.S.relations.The U.S.strategy of“integrated deterrence”runs counter to the trend of the era.Limited by the constraints of strategic resources and strategic coordination capabilities,as well as the uneven capabilities of Allies,the neutrality policy of most small and medium-sized countries in the Asia-Pacific region,and the possible countermeasures of great powers,the strategy of“integrated deterrence”is doomed to be difficult to achieve.

关 键 词：战略遗产 一体化威慑 中美战略博弈 亚太安全 

分 类 号：D771.2[政治法律—政治学]