“美英澳安全联盟”的核潜艇计划研究  

A Study on AUKUS’s Nuclear-Powered Submarines Deal

作　　者：李小军[1] LI Xiaojun

机构地区：[1]广州大学公共管理学院,广州510405

出　　处：《东北亚学刊》2024年第6期37-62,145,共27页Journal of Northeast Asia Studies

基　　金：2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“总体国家安全观视域下‘美英澳安全联盟’(AUKUS)对我国的影响及应对方略研究”(23YJAGJW003)。

摘　　要：美英澳三国成立具有准军事同盟性质的“美英澳安全联盟”,向非核武国家澳大利亚转让核潜艇技术,有围堵中国海军力量、确保前沿军事存在、赢得全方位竞争优势、打造遏华联合战线等多重战略意图。该核潜艇计划可能提升中美陷入“新冷战”的风险,给大西洋联盟带来新裂痕,以及激发美国盟国内部和有关国家对核潜艇的追逐,带来军备竞赛和核扩散的风险。核潜艇计划作为“美英澳安全联盟”的第一支柱,已在政治、能力提升、防扩散等层面取得若干进展,但仍在侵蚀国家主权完整性、国家安全悖论、常规潜艇向核潜艇过渡、庞大成本负担、环保团体反核压力、核潜艇转让监管障碍及核潜艇乏燃料处置难题等方面面临挑战。The U.S.-led formation of AUKUS,a paramilitary alliance,and the transfer of nuclear submarine technology to Australia,a non-nuclear-weapon state,have multiple strategic intentions,such as blocking China’s naval power,securing a forward military presence,pursuing to win an all-round competition,and creating a joint front to curb China.The nuclear submarine program carries the risk of triggering a new Cold War between China and the U.S.in the Asia-Pacific region,and the concerns of certain non-Anglo-Saxon allies.It also creates new fissures in the Atlantic alliance and grants nuclear submarine privileges to Australia.This not only creates a precedent for the regional powers,but also inspires the pursuit of nuclear submarines within the U.S.allies and among the relevant potential countries,thus it poses the risk of an arms race and nuclear proliferation.The nuclear submarine program,as well as the first pillar of AUKUS,has made a number of important advances at the political,governmental,capability enhancement,and nonproliferation levels,but it still faces multiple challenges such as erosion of national sovereign integrity,national security paradoxes,transition from conventional to nuclear submarines,huge cost burdens,anti-nuclear pressures from environmental groups,and regulatory barriers to the transfer of nuclear submarines along with disposal difficulties for spent nuclear submarine fuel.The formation of AUKUS is the result of the convergence of the interests of the three Anglo-Saxon countries,and it has the foundation and momentum for sustainable advancement,but it is also faced with a variety of blocking factors,and there are still a lot of uncertainties and risks.Academics need to study indepth its impact on me and ensure the initiative of strategic game against the U.S.under the perspective of the overall national security concept and on the basis of adhering to the linkage between domestic security and international security.

关 键 词：美英澳安全联盟 核潜艇计划 核扩散 中美战略博弈 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学] D814.1[政治法律—外交学]