未来气候变化对黄淮海冬小麦-夏玉米轮作系统生产力影响  

Influences of Climate Change on Productivity of Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Rotation System in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：董文彪 冯文哲 屈萌钰 冯浩[2,3] 于强 何建强 DONG Wenbiao;FENG Wenzhe;QU Mengyu;FENG Hao;YU Qiang;HE Jianqiang(Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Institute of Water and Soil Conservation,Chinese Academy of Science and Ministry of Water Resource,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology for the Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau,Shaanxi Provincial Meteorological Bureau,Xi'an 710016,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学中国旱区节水农业研究院,陕西杨凌712100 [3]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [4]陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,西安710016

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2024年第11期429-445,共17页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079115);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1900700);高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)项目(B12007)。

摘　　要：揭示未来气候变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦-夏玉米轮作系统作物物候和产量的影响,对保障我国粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于文献收集的多站点多年份大田试验数据来校准和验证APSIM-Wheat和APSIM-Maize模型,并结合CMIP6数据集10个全球气候模型(Global climate models,GCMs)预测的未来气象数据,驱动校准验证后的APSIM模型,模拟分析了SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5两种温室气体排放情景下黄淮海地区冬小麦-夏玉米轮作系统在2021—2060年(2040s)和2061—2100年(2080s)作物物候期和产量的变化情况。基于多元线性回归方法分析其变化趋势,并结合随机森林(Random forest,RF)模型分析了气候要素与作物生殖生长期变化对作物产量的正负效应及其重要性。结果表明:与基准期(1981—2020年)相比,冬小麦营养生长期总体缩短,生殖生长期总体延长,产量增加,且在SSP5-8.5情景下变化更明显;与基准期相比,夏玉米营养生长期、生殖生长期都将缩短,产量增加,但相较于SSP2-4.5,夏玉米在SSP5-8.5情景下出现减产趋势;与SSP2-4.5相比,在SSP5-8.5情景下冬小麦-夏玉米轮作系统的周年全生育期缩短,周年总产量增加,且冬小麦产量占比有所增加。在未来时段,冬小麦产量主要与生育期内太阳辐射、日均温及累计降雨量之间呈正相关关系,但日均温及累计降雨量的增加不利于在SSP5-8.5情景下2080s时间段内实现冬小麦增产;夏玉米产量与气象因子的相关性与冬小麦类似,但夏玉米产量始终与日均温直接呈显著负相关。通过随机森林模型分析可知,冬小麦生殖生长期、生育期内累计降雨量对冬小麦产量影响最大;夏玉米生育期内CO_(2)浓度、日均温及累计降雨量对夏玉米产量影响最大。总体上,未来气候变化将导致黄淮海地区冬小麦生殖生长期延长,夏玉米生殖生长期缩短,产量增加;但随着时间推移,温度及降雨量对作物产量的正效应�It is of great significance to explore the influences of climate change on crop phenology and yield of the rotation system of winter wheat and summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,a major grain production base in China,for guaranteeing the food security of China.The APSIM-Wheat and APSIM-Maize models(V 7.6)were calibrated and verified based on experimental data of multiple years and multiple sites,which were obtained based on literature review.Then,future meteorological data predicted by ten different global climate models(GCMs)in the CMIP6 dataset were used to drive the verified APSIM models to simulate the changes of phenology and yield of winter wheat and summer maize in the time periods of 2021—2060(2040s)and 2061—2100(2080s)under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.Based on the analyses with multiple linear regression and random forest model,the positive and negative effects of climatic factors and change of crop reproductive stage on crop yield were analyzed and their importance was clarified.The result showed that compared with the baseline period(1981—2020),the vegetative stage of winter wheat was shortened,the reproductive stage was prolonged,and wheat yield was increased.These changes were more obvious under the SSP5-8.5 than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The vegetative and reproductive stages of summer maize were both shortened,and maize yield was increased.However,compared with SSP2-4.5,maize yield would be reduced under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.Compared with SSP2-4.5,the total growth period of winter wheat-summer maize rotation system was shortened,the annual yield was increased,and the proportion of winter wheat yield was increased under SSP5-8.5 scenario.In the future,winter wheat yield was mainly positively correlated with solar radiation,daily mean temperature,and cumulative precipitation during the whole growing season.However,the increase of daily mean temperature and cumulative precipitation was unfavorable to yield increase in 2080s under the SSP5-8.5 scen

关 键 词：冬小麦 夏玉米 物候期 产量 气候变化 黄淮海平原 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]