基于MaxEnt模型的中国白刺属植物种群动态分析  

Population Dynamics Analysis of Chinese Nitraria Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：姜生秀[1] 胡静[1] 王方琳[1] 胡小柯[1] 王昱淇 邱晓娜 张珊 尉秋实[1,2,3] Jiang Shengxiu;Hu Jing;Wang Fanging;Hu Xiaoke;Wang Yuqi;Qiu Xiaona;Zhang Shan;Yu Qiushi(State Key Lab.Breeding Base of Desertification and Aeolian Sand Disaster Combating,Gansu Desert Control Research Institute,Lanzhou 730070,China;Gansu Minqin National Field Observation and Research Station on Ecosystem of Desertification Rangeland,Minqin 733000,China;Key Lab.of Biodiversity Formation Mechanism and Comprehensive Utilization of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in Qinghai Province,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省治沙研究所甘肃省荒漠化与风沙灾害防治重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃民勤荒漠草地生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,甘肃民勤733000 [3]青海师范大学青海省青藏高原生物多样性形成机制与综合利用重点实验室,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《中国野生植物资源》2024年第11期122-128,共7页Chinese Wild Plant Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(32060235);国家自然科学区域创新联合基金项目(U22A20452);湖北省教育厅科技项目(B2017170)。

摘　　要：目的:了解气候变化情景下白刺属植物在中国的潜在分布和种群动态,为白刺属在中国的保护与恢复提供理论依据。方法:利用144个分布点和9个环境因子,通过MaxEnt模型,模拟白刺属在不同时期(末次冰盛期、末次间冰期、当代和未来)在中国的适生区及迁移路线,并分析影响其分布的气候因素。结果:最暖季度的降水量(bio18)、年均温(bio1)、温度季节性变化标准差(bio4)和最冷季平均温(bio11)对白刺属分布有重要影响,其适宜范围分别为:50~250 mm、11~22.5℃、600~1400和-12.5~-2.5℃。当代气候情景下,白刺属适生区在中国西北各地区均有分布,在陕西和山西也有少量分布,适生区总面积为277.17×10^(4)km^(2),高适生区为68.92×10^(4)km^(2),中适生区为90.03×10^(4)km^(2),低适生区为118.22×10^(4)km^(2)。相比当代,末次冰盛期、末次间冰期和未来3个时期的高、中、低适生区面积均有所减少,另外,从末次冰盛期到末次间冰期,白刺属适生区总面积有所扩张。质心分析表明,在未来,白刺属有向低海拔处迁移的趋势。结论:在未来全球气候变暖的大背景下,白刺属植物将面临生存风险,应加强白刺属植物的保护和利用。Objective:To understand the potential distribution and population dynamics of Nitraria under climate change scenarios,and to provide theoretical basis for the conservation and restoration of Nitraria in China.Methods:144 distribution sites and 9 environmental factors were used to simulate the suitable areas and migration routes of Nitraria in different periods(last glacial maximum,last interglacial,present and future)in China using the MaxEnt model,and the climatic factors affecting distribution of Nitraria were analyzed.Results:The distribution of Nitraria was significantly affected by precipitation in the warmest season(bio18),average annual temperature(bio1),standard deviation of seasonal temperature change(bio4)and average temperature in the coldest season(bio11),and their suitable ranges were as follows:50~250 mm,11~22.5℃,600~1400 and-12.5~-2.5℃.Under the contemporary climate scenario,the suitable area of Nitraria was distributed in all regions of northwest China,with a small distribution in Shaanxi and Shanxi.The total suitable area of contemporary was 277.17×10^(4)km^(2).The high,middle and low suitable area was 68.92×10^(4)km^(2),90.03×10^(4)km^(2) and 118.22×10^(4)km^(2),respectively.Compared with the contemporary period,the high,middle and low suitable areas of the last glacial maximum,the last interglacial and the future all decreased.In addition,from the last glacial maximum to the last interglacial period,the suitable area of Nitraria expanded.Centroid analysis showed that the genus had a tendency to migrate to lower elevations in the future.Conclusion:Under the background of global warming in the future,the survival risk of Nitraria would be faced,and the protection and utilization of Nitraria should be strengthened.

关 键 词：白刺属 MaxEnt模型 环境因子 潜在分布区 种群动态 

分 类 号：Q948.5[生物学—植物学]