基于Mann-Kendall检验的2004—2023年安徽省有螺面积变化趋势分析  

Trends in areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 based on the Mann-Kendall test

作　　者：高风华 张世清 丁宋军 许晓娟 汪天平 代波 GAO Fenghua;ZHANG Shiqing;DING Songjun;XU Xiaojuan;WANG Tianping;DAI Bo(Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei,Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省疾病预防控制中心,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2024年第5期460-465,共6页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

摘　　要：目的分析2004—2023年安徽省有螺面积变化趋势,为安徽省推进血吸虫病消除进程提供参考。方法收集2004—2023年安徽省有螺面积数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验法分别对全省有螺面积变化趋势和突变、不同类型血吸虫病流行区和不同地级市有螺面积变化趋势进行分析。结果2004—2023年安徽省有螺面积下降12.62%,Mann-Kendall趋势检验发现,2004—2023年全省有螺面积呈下降趋势(Z=-3.926,P<0.001,β=-215.66),以平均每年215.66 hm^(2)的幅度下降;Mann-Kendall突变检验发现,自2015年起,安徽省有螺面积呈下降趋势(|Z|>U0.05,P<0.05)。2004—2023年,安徽省湖沼型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积呈下降趋势(Z=-4.899,P<0.001,β=-260.13),山丘型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积呈上升趋势(Z=2.758,P<0.01,β=44.55)。全省9个血吸虫病流行地级市中,马鞍山市、铜陵市、安庆市、黄山市和池州市有螺面积呈下降趋势(Z=-4.056~-2.109,P均<0.05,β=-92.12~-0.45)。2004—2023年,安徽省湖沼型与山丘型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积平均占比分别为88.19%、11.81%,湖沼型与山丘型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积之比由9.23∶1下降至5.74∶1,比值呈下降趋势(Z=-4.477,P<0.001,β=-0.16)。结论2004—2023年安徽省有螺面积呈下降趋势,其中湖沼型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积降低、山丘型血吸虫病流行区有螺面积升高。应根据实际螺情制定有针对性的钉螺控制措施。Objective To investigate the trends in areas of Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023,so as to provide insights into facilitating the progress of schistosomiasis elimination in the province.Methods Areas of O.hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 were collected,and the trends in and mutations of O.hupensis snail habitats in Anhui Province,and the trends in O.hupensis snail habitats in different types of schistosomiasis-endemic foci and in different cities of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall test.Results The areas of O.hupensis snail habitats reduced by 12.62%in Anhui Province in 2023 relative to in 2004.Mann-Kendall trend test showed that the areas of O.hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023(Z=-3.926,P<0.001,β=-215.66),with an annual average reduction of 215.66 hm^(2).Mann-Kendall mutation test showed that the areas of O.hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in Anhui Province since 2015(|Z|>U0.05,P<0.05).The areas of O.hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in marshland and lake regions(Z=-4.899,P<0.001,β=-260.13),and a tendency towards a rise in hilly regions of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023(Z=2.758,P<0.01,β=44.55).Among 9 cities endemic for schistosomiasis in Anhui Province,the areas of O.hupensis snail habitats appeared a tendency towards a decline in 5 cities of Ma'anshan,Tongling,Anqing,Huangshan and Chizhou(Z=-4.056 to-2.109,all P values<0.05,β=-92.12 to-0.45).The average constituent ratios of areas of O.hupensis snail habitats were 88.19%and 11.81%in marshland and lake regions and hilly regions of Anhui Province from 2004 to 2023,respectively,and the ratio of areas of O.hupensis snail habitats in marshland and lake regions to areas of snail habitats in hilly regions reduced from 9.23∶1 in 2004 to 5.74∶1 in 2023 in Anhui Province,with the ratio appearing a tendency towards a decline(Z=-4.477,P<0.001,β=-0

关 键 词：湖北钉螺 MANN-KENDALL检验 安徽省 

分 类 号：R383.24[医药卫生—医学寄生虫学]