2016—2022年青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例时空分布特征  

Spatiotemporal distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis patients in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022

作　　者：崔馨禄 马霄[2] 刘娜[2] 刘佳[2] 雷雯[2] 吴树声 秦香兰 才仁尼玛 龚春花 莫筱瑾 杨诗杰 张颋 曹莉 CUI Xinlu;MA Xiao;LIU Na;LIU Jia;LEI Wen;WU Shusheng;QIN Xianglan;CAIRENNYIMA;GONG Chunhua;MO Xiaojin;YANG Shijie;ZHANG Ting;CAO Li(School of Public Health,Hainan Medical University,Haikou,Hainan 571199,China;Qinghai Institute for Endemic Disease Prevention and Control,China;Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qinghai Province,China;Yushu Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Qinghai Province,China;National Institute of Parasitic Diseases,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention(Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research),National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology,China)

机构地区：[1]海南医科大学公共卫生学院,海南海口571199 [2]青海省地方病预防控制所 [3]青海省玉树藏族自治州疾病预防控制中心 [4]青海省玉树市疾病预防控制中心 [5]中国疾病预防控制中心寄生虫病预防控制所(国家热带病研究中心)、传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室、国家卫生健康委员会寄生虫病原与媒介生物学重点实验室

出　　处：《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》2024年第5期474-480,共7页Chinese Journal of Schistosomiasis Control

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2300800,2021YFC2300804)。

摘　　要：目的分析2016—2022年青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例时空分布特征及潜在影响因素,为制定青海省棘球蚴病防治策略提供参考依据。方法自2016—2022年青海省棘球蚴病防治项目年报表获取棘球蚴病筛查人数、新发现棘球蚴病病例数、登记管理犬数、流浪犬数等数据,计算新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率。检索《青海省统计年鉴》,获取青海省各县(市、区)人口数、降水量、温度、风速、日照时数、平均海拔、年末牛存栏数、年末羊存栏数、人均国内生产总值(gross domestic product,GDP)、村卫生室数等数据。于国家地理信息公共服务平台下载青海省县级电子地图,采用ArcGIS 10.8软件绘制青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例分布电子地图,并进行空间自相关分析。采用SaTScan 10.1.2软件对青海省棘球蚴病筛查人数、新发现棘球蚴病病例数、地理坐标进行时空扫描分析,采用地理探测器(GeoDetector)分析新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率空间分层异质性。结果2016—2022年,青海省累计筛查棘球蚴病6569426人,新发现棘球蚴病病例5924例,各年新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)=11.107,P<0.01),其中2017年果洛藏族自治州新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率最高(82.12/10万)。2016—2018年,青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率存在空间聚集性(Moran's I=0.34~0.65,Z均>1.96,P均<0.05);2019—2022年呈随机分布(Moran's I=-0.09~0.04,Z均<1.96,P均>0.05)。局部空间自相关分析发现,2016—2022年青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率“高-高”聚集区和“低-低”聚集区均呈聚集趋势。时空扫描分析发现,2016—2022年青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例一级聚集区主要分布于玉树藏族自治州和果洛藏族自治州。基于地理探测器的青海省新发现棘球蚴病病例检出率空间分层异质性驱动因子分析发现,平均海拔、村卫生室数、牛羊存栏数、人均GDP、年均日�Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and potential influencing factors of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022,so as to provide insights into the formulation of the echinococcosis control strategy in Qinghai Province.Methods The number of individuals screened for echinococcosis,number of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases,number of registered dogs and number of stray dogs were captured from the annual reports of echinococcosis control program in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022,and the detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was calculated.The number of populations,precipitation,temperature,wind speed,sunshine hours,average altitude,number of year-end cattle stock,number of year-end sheep stock,gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,and number of village health centers in each county(district)of Qinghai Province were captured from the Qinghai Provincial Statistical Yearbook,and county-level electronic maps in Qinghai Province were downloaded from the National Platform for Common Geospatial Information Services.The software ArcGIS 10.8 was used to map the distribution of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases in Qinghai Province,and the spatial autocorrelation analysis of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was performed.In addition,the spacetime scan analyses of number of individuals screened for echinococcosis,number of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases and geographical coordinates in Qinghai Province were performed with the software SaTScan 10.1.2,and the spatial stratified heterogeneity of the detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases was investigated with the software GeoDetector.Results A total of 6569426 residents were screened for echinococcosis in Qinghai Province from 2016 to 2022,and 5924 newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases were found.The detection of newly diagnosed echinococcosis cases appeared a tendency towards a decline over years from 2016 to 2022(χ^(2)=11.107,P<0.01),with the highest detection in Gu

关 键 词：棘球蚴病 新发现病例 空间自相关 空间聚集性 空间分层异质性 青海省 

分 类 号：R532.32[医药卫生—内科学]