基于激光测风雷达及改进NESN的短期风向预测  

Short⁃term Wind Direction Prediction Based on Laser Wind Measurement Radar and Improved NESN

作　　者：布宪帅 何山[1,2] BU Xianshuai;HE Shan(School of Electrical Engineering,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,Xinjiang,China;Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Renewable Energy Power Generation and Grid Connection Control,Urumqi 830017,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学电气工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017 [2]可再生能源发电与并网控制教育部工程研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《电气传动》2024年第12期79-85,共7页Electric Drive

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2021I010);新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题(2022D04029);新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发项目(2022B01003-3);新疆大学课程思政标杆课项目(XJU2022BGK27)。

摘　　要：为了提高短期风向预测的准确性和稳定性,提出一种基于激光雷达测风数据及改进非线性回声状态网络(NESN)模型进行风向预测。首先,通过激光测风雷达获取风机前方100 m的风向数据;其次,采用多元多项式函数构建储备池内部状态的非线性关系,减少权重矩阵的阶数,降低模型计算的复杂度;最后,建立预测模型,分别在不同的激光测风雷达数据集上展开仿真预测。结果表明,与非线性回声状态网络和自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)相比,改进NESN模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、归一化平均绝对误差(NMAE)和归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)明显降低,预测精度和稳定性有所提升;提高了风机对风精度,降低了偏航机械损耗。In order to improve the accuracy and stability of short-term wind direction prediction,a wind direction prediction method based on lidar wind data and an improved nonlinear echo state network(NESN)model was proposed.First of all,wind direction data 100 meters ahead of the wind turbine was obtained by laser wind detection radar.Secondly,the multivariate polynomial function was used to construct the nonlinear relation of the internal state of the reserve pool,the order of the weight matrix and the complexity of model calculation were reduced.Finally,the prediction model was established and the simulation prediction was carried out on different lidar data sets.The results show that compared with the nonlinear echo state network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system(ANFIS),the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),normalized mean absolute error(NMAE)and normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)of the improved NESN model are significantly reduced,and the prediction accuracy and stability are improved.The accuracy of the wind turbine alignment the wind direction is improved and the mechanical loss of yaw is reduced.

关 键 词：激光测风雷达 风向预测 非线性回声状态网络 偏航 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]