A global analysis of coastal flood risk to the petrochemical distribution network in a changing climate  

作　　者：Kendall M.Capshaw Jamie E.Padgett 

机构地区：[1]Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Rice University,Houston,TX,USA

出　　处：《Resilient Cities and Structures》2022年第3期52-60,共9页韧性城市与结构（英文）

基　　金：financial support of this research by the Center of Excellence for Resilience of Industrial&Energy Infrastructure(CERISE)at Rice University.

摘　　要：The global petroleum distribution network already faces a significant threat of disruption due to annual coastal flooding of major refining centers,which is expected to further increase with the effects of climate change.This study considers the impacts that sea level rise projections might have on the annual flood risk to coastal refineries,and how regional disruptions propagate across the network.Both the annual regional risk in terms of expected production disruption under a range of climate scenarios,as well as the expected production disruption due to a major flood event impacting refining hubs of high importance are assessed throughout the 21 st century.These risks are propagated across the network to model the global impact of coastal flood-induced refining disruptions.This analysis provides insights on the relative risks that different climate scenarios and flood events pose globally,informing potential mitigation and adaptation needs of critical facilities.Due to the highly interconnected nature of the global petroleum product distribution network,these results highlight the need for mitigation considerations for even regions with low domestic production disruption risk due to coastal flood hazards,as disruptions in remote regions can have cascading consequences resulting in significant disruption to petroleum product supply around the world.Furthermore,such results can inform decisions regarding technology transitions or energy diversification in light of the new understanding of climate risks to coastal refineries and the global petroleum distribution network.

关 键 词：Global risk Coastal flood Refining infrastructure Distribution network disruption Sea level rise 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]