贵阳市社区居民主观预期寿命及其影响因素研究  

Study on subjective life expectancy and its influencing factors of community residents in Guiyang City

作　　者：田柳丹 伍红艳 余江霞 李星辰 荣艺 TIAN Liudan;WU Hongyan;YU Jiangxia;LI Xingchen;RONG Yi(School of Public Health,Guizhou Medical University,Guizhou Province,Guiyang561113,China;School of Medicine and Health Management,Guizhou Medical University,Guizhou Province,Guiyang561113,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院,贵州贵阳561113 [2]贵州医科大学医药卫生管理学院,贵州贵阳561113

出　　处：《中国医药导报》2024年第31期93-99,共7页China Medical Herald

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71463007)。

摘　　要：目的了解贵阳市社区居民的主观预期寿命(SLE),分析其影响因素,以期为提高预期寿命提供参考。方法采用方便抽样法,于2023年10月至12月选取580名贵阳市花溪区、南明区、云岩区、观山湖区20~60岁社区居民为研究对象,通过问卷调研收集其个体特征、家庭特征、健康状况及健康行为等信息,并分别使用点估计法和概率法对受访者SLE进行测量,采用二分类logistic回归分析SLE影响因素。结果共发放问卷580份,回收有效问卷542份,有效率为93.45%。总样本主观生存概率(SSP)1的SLE低于精算预期寿命,男性点估计的SLE高于精算预期寿命,男性SSP1和SSP2的SLE均低于精算预期寿命,女性点估计、SSP1和SSP2的SLE均低于精算预期寿命,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素分析显示,父母健在1名(OR=0.07,P=0.026)和2名(OR=0.09,P=0.045)是SLE点估计值的危险因素,快乐感维度水平2(OR=2.42,P=0.010)是SLE点估计值的保护因素,经常获得医疗服务(OR=3.76,P=0.001)是SLE SSP1的保护因素,≥2种慢性病(OR=0.47,P=0.013)是SLE SSP2的危险因素。结论通过对性别差异问题的继续关注、推行更好的养老模式以满足老年人身心健康需求的同时减轻年轻群体的经济负担及加强年轻群体预防保健意识等,有利于促进提升预期寿命目标的实现,并改善居民健康状况。Objective To understand subjective life expectancy(SLE)of community residents in Guiyang City,and analyze its influencing factors,provide reference for improving life expectancy.Methods Convenient sampling method was used to select 580 community residents aged 20-60 in Huaxi District,Nanming District,Yunyan District,and Guanshanhu District of Guiyang City as research subjects from October to December 2023.Individual characteristics,family characteristics,health status,and health behaviors were collected through questionnaire surveys.The point estimation method and probability method were used to measure SLE of the respondents,respectively.Binary logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of SLE.Results A total of 580 questionnaires were distributed,and 542 valid questionnaires were collected,with an effective rate of 93.45%.SLE of subjective survival probability(SSP)1 in the total sample was lower than actuarial life expectancy,male point estimation of SLE was higher than actuarial life expectancy,male SSP1 and SSP2 of SLE were both lower than actuarial life expectancy,female point estimation,SSP1,and SSP2 of SLE were all lower than actuarial life expectancy,the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis showed that one parent who was still alive(OR=0.07,P=0.026)and two parents who were alive(OR=0.09,P=0.045)were the protective factor of point estimation of SLE,level two of happiness dimension(OR=2.42,P=0.010)was risk factor for point estimation of SLE,frequent access to medical services(OR=3.76,P=0.001)were the protective factor of on SSP1 of SLE,more than two chronic diseases(OR=0.47,P=0.013)was risk factor for SSP2 of SLE.Conclusion By continuing to pay attention to gender differences,promoting better pension models to meet the physical and mental health needs of the elderly while alleviating the financial burden on younger groups,and strengthening the awareness of preventive health care among younger groups,it will help to promote the realization of the goal

关 键 词：主观预期寿命 概率法 点估计法 影响因素 

分 类 号：R195.3[医药卫生—卫生统计学]