自由贸易协定如何影响价值链贸易隐含碳排放?——考量贸易协定环境成本的经验研究  

Impact of Free Trade Agreements on the Embodied Carbon Emissions in GVCs:An Empirical Study of the Environmental Costs of Trade Agreements

作　　者：彭水军[1] 周杰 Peng Shuijun;Zhou Jie(School of Economics,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2024年第6期31-56,共26页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“全球价值链区域化视角下RCEP的贸易和福利效应量化评估及对策研究”(项目编号:22AJL011)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文使用2000—2014年国家间投入产出数据,实证探究了自由贸易协定(FTA)如何影响其成员国价值链贸易中的隐含碳排放,以考察FTA的环境成本。研究发现,FTA显著提升了价值链贸易隐含碳排放。这一效应强于FTA对最终品贸易隐含碳排放的影响,且FTA对不同价值链路径中的碳排放影响不同。FTA一方面通过规模效应促使成员国排放增长与环境成本加剧,另一方面通过技术效应有效降低价值链贸易隐含碳排放强度,有助于降低单位环境成本。但从整体来看,规模效应占主导作用。进一步分析发现,FTA对碳排放的促进作用主要由区域协定驱动,且对发达成员国、北北国家间以及南方国家对北方国家的出口隐含碳影响更强。This paper uses the input⁃output data between countries from 2000 to 2014 to empiri⁃cally explore how free trade agreements(FTAs)affect the embodied carbon emissions in the val⁃ue chain trade of member countries,to consider the environmental costs of FTAs.This paper finds that FTAs lead to an increase in the embodied carbon emissions of value chain trade.This effect is stronger than the impact of FTAs on the embodied carbon emissions of final goods trade,and there are heterogeneous impacts in different value chain routes.On the one hand,FTAs lead to an increase in emissions and environmental costs through the scale effect;on the other hand,FTAs reduce the emission intensity through the technical effect,which reduce the unit environ⁃mental cost.But the scale effect plays a leading role.Further analysis shows that the promotion of FTAs on carbon emissions is driven by regional agreements,and has a stronger impact on devel⁃oped members,North⁃North trade,and the export of the South to the North.

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 贸易隐含碳 全球价值链 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] X22[经济管理—产业经济]