澄清贸易摩擦导致的中美双边贸易统计误导  

Clarification of Misleading Bilateral Trade Statistics between China and the United States Due to Trade Conflict

作　　者：夏珺 李双双 花昀 李昕 Xia Jun;Li Shuangshuang;Hua Yun;Li Xin

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院 [2]广东省团校(广东青年政治学院) [3]中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所经济数据与政策评估实验室 [4]中国教育科学研究院教育理论研究所

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第11期36-48,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“产品内分工视角下的全球价值链发展对就业创造与分配的影响研究”(71803011)。

摘　　要：澄清加征关税对中美双边贸易统计的误导,避免两国关税影响的统计误判十分必要。本文采用双重差分模型,在HS8位产品编码基础上,区分受301调查关税净影响的美国自中国进口商品、受出口增值税净税率下调影响的中国对美国出口商品,以及同时受两者影响的三类商品进行实证检验。研究结论显示,加征301调查关税导致美国进口商低报自中国进口贸易额,低报幅度约为2017年加征关税前美国自中国进口规模的10.4%;出口增值税净税率下调在一定程度上使中国出口商多报对美国出口贸易额,多报规模约为2017年中国对美国出口规模的2.3%;相比而言,301调查关税影响下美国对中国贸易逆差大幅下降是中美两国贸易统计差异异常变动的主要原因;重新修正后的美国对中国贸易逆差2019—2021年三年平均上调14.4%,中国对美国贸易顺差平均下调3.4%。Clarification of the misleading effects of additional tariffs on bilateral trade statistics is necessary to avoid misinterpretation of statistics on the impact of tariffs between China and the United States.In the paper,we apply a DID model based on the HS8-digit code to distinguish between the US imports from China that are subject to 301 tariffs,exports from China to the US that are affected by the reduction in the net export VAT rate,and those affected by both tariffs.In conclusion,the 301 tariffs have caused the US importers to under-report their imports from China,and the under-reporting rate is approximately 10.4%of the scale of US imports from China before the additional tariffs were imposed in 2017.The reduction of the net export VAT rate has incited Chinese exporters to over-report their exports to the United States;the scale of overreporting is approximately 2.3%of China's exports to the US in 2017.There has been a sharp decline in the US trade deficit with China attributed to 301 tariffs,causing a variation in trade statistics between the two countries.According to the recalculated trade deficit between the United States and China from 2019 to 2021,the US trade deficit with China will increase by an average of 14.4%,while China's trade surplus with the United States will decrease by an average of 3.4%.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 加征关税 贸易失衡 双重差分 

分 类 号：F712.3[经济管理—产业经济]