不同情境下地区环境规制的敏感性互动研究--基于279个地级及以上城市的检验  

Sensitive Interactions of Regional Environmental Regulation in China in Different Contexts:Based on 279 Cities at or above the Prefecture Level

作　　者：谢永乐 林子秋 张驰 宋晨曦 Xie Yongle;Lin Ziqiu;Zhang Chi;Song Chenxi

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际发展合作学院 [2]清华大学公共管理学院 [3]对外经济贸易大学中国金融学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2024年第11期62-75,共14页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“‘双碳’目标背景下我国地区环境规制的敏感性博弈及其绩效研究”(72204044);北京市社会科学基金一般项目“深入推进京津冀绿色创新协同发展的战略要求、逻辑机理和实践路径研究”(23LLYJC107);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“跨域性环境协同治理绩效评价研究--基于动态空间网络视角”(21QD35)。

摘　　要：为了厘清“双碳”目标等战略引导的地区环境规制策略互动脉络,本文基于时间惯性与空间外溢效应、多领域交叉复合影响层面构建动态空间实证模型,选取2007—2019年我国279个地级及以上城市的经济增长、财政负担、就业压力、产业结构作为敏感性维度进行检验。研究发现,地区环境规制具有显著的复合型正向“外互动”特征,在地理邻接、地理距离及4种敏感性情境存在显性与隐性的时空尺度效应。在融合直接与间接作用机理的环境规制“内互动”体系中,经济增长呈负效应,财政负担与产业结构呈正效应,就业压力以负效应为主但潜藏着正效应。构建嵌套型敏感性空间权重矩阵与划分时间节点的检验显示,敏感性“外互动”与“内互动”均稳健,“两山”理论引导的系列实践政策具有良好的推动作用。本文研究为统筹全局与局部环境规制步调、增强地区多领域平衡发展的循环合力等提供有益的理论与实践参考。In order to analyze the strategy interaction of regional environmental regulation guided by the“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”goals,a dynamic spatial empirical model is constructed based on temporal inertia and spatial spillover effects and multi-domain cross-composite effects.The economic growth,fiscal burden,employment pressure and industrial structure of 279 prefecture-level cities and municipalities in China from 2007 to 2019 are selected as sensitivity dimensions for testing.It is found that:First,regional environmental regulations are characterized by significant composite positive“external interactions”,with explicit and implicit spatiotemporal scale effects in geographic proximity,geographic distance and four sensitive contexts.Second,in the“internal interaction”system of environmental regulation that combines direct and indirect mechanisms,economic growth has a negative effect,fiscal burden and industrial structure have a positive effect,and employment pressure is mainly negative but has a latent positive effect.Third,the tests of constructing nested sensitivity spatial weight matrices and dividing time nodes show that both“external”and“internal”sensitive interactions are robust,and the series of practical policies guided by the“Two Mountains”theory have a good promoting effect.This paper provides a beneficial basis and practical reference for coordinating the pace of global and local environmental regulations,enhancing the circular synergy of balanced development in multiple fields of the region.

关 键 词：地区环境规制 敏感性互动 动态空间实证模型 异质性检验 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]