闽西南水资源配置工程调出区与调入区丰枯遭遇研究  

Study on the encounter of wet and dry conditions between the water export and import areas in the water resources allocation project of Southwest Fujian

作　　者：陈艳[1] 李臻 陈梅 吕攀屹 CHEN Yan;LI Zhen;CHEN Mei;LYU Panyi(China Water Resources Pearl River Planning,Surveying&Designing Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510610,China;General Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Planning and Design,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100120,China;Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources,Pearl River Water Conservancy Comprehensive Technical Center,Guangzhou 510611,China)

机构地区：[1]中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东广州510610 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100120 [3]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江水利综合技术中心,广东广州510611

出　　处：《江淮水利科技》2024年第5期26-30,56,共6页Jianghuai Water Resources Science and Technology

摘　　要：为分析韩江流域向闽西南调水的可行性,运用Copula理论构造了韩江流域调出区和闽西南调入区代表水文站年径流量的联合分布模型,定量描述了韩江调出区和闽西南调入区丰枯遭遇的概率。韩江上杭站和晋江石砻站同时出现枯水年(P≥75%)的概率为16.07%,特枯水年(P≥95%)的概率为2.24%。当调入区晋江石砻站出现特枯水年(P≥95%)时,调出区韩江上杭站出现枯水年(P≥75%)的概率为4.48%。结果表明,韩江流域和福建晋江流域同时发生特枯水年的概率很小,两站径流丰枯同频的概率也是比较小的。研究可为闽西南水资源配置工程建设可行性分析提供技术依据。To analyze the feasibility of diverting water from the Hanjiang Basin to Southwest Fujian,the Copula theory was applied to construct a joint distribution model of annual runoff for representative hydrological stations in the water export area of the Hanjiang Basin and the water import area of Southwest Fujian.This model quantitatively described the probability of wet and dry condition encounters between the Hanjiang export area and the Southwest Fujian import area.The probability rate of both the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin and the Shilong station in Jinjiang experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)simultaneously was 16.07%.The probability of both experiencing an extremely dry year(P≥95%)simultaneously was 2.24%.When the Shilong station in Jinjiang experienced an extremely dry year(P≥95%),the probability of the Shanghang station in the Hanjiang Basin experiencing a dry year(P≥75%)was 4.48%.The results indicated that in other words,the probability of both the Hanjiang Basin and the Jinjiang Basin in Fujian experiencing extremely dry years simultaneously was very low,and the probability of the two stations experiencing synchronized flood and drought frequencies was also relatively small.The research results provided a technical basis for analyzing the feasibility of constructing the water resource allocation project in Southwest Fujian.

关 键 词：韩江流域 丰枯遭遇 可行性分析 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]