我国禽肉消费演变特征、驱动因素及趋势研判  

Study on Evolution Characteristics,Driving Factors and Trends of Poultry Meat Consumption in China

作　　者：王欣悦 辛翔飞[2] WANG Xinyue;XIN Xiangfei(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学商学院,上海200433 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国家禽》2024年第12期102-110,共9页China Poultry

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(72033009);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-SYJ-09-2024);农业农村部和财政部:国家现代农业产业技术体系(CARS-41)。

摘　　要：生产上具有节粮、高效等显著优势的禽肉在肉类供给和消费中的地位和作用越来越受关注。文章在梳理国内外禽肉消费演变特征的基础上,分析我国禽肉消费增长的驱动因素,并通过中国农业产业模型(CASM)模拟预测未来禽肉消费的趋势和增长空间。结果显示,未来禽肉将成为我国人均肉类消费水平增长的最主要动因,2035年我国人均禽肉消费量将增长至24.7 kg/人。研究为有效保障国家食物供给安全、更好地满足城乡居民动物蛋白消费需求以及健康中国建设提供理论参考。The status and role of poultry meat in meat supply and consumption with significant advantages such as grain saving and high efficiency in production has attracted more and more attention.On the basis of combing the evolution characteristics of poultry consumption at home and abroad,the driving factors of poultry consumption growth in China was analyzed.The results indicated that poultry meat would become the most important driving force for the growth of per capita meat consumption in China in the future.In 2035,China's per capita poultry meat consumption would increase to 24.7 kg/person.This study would provide a theoretical reference for effectively ensuring the safety of national food supply,better meeting the needs of urban and rural residents for animal protein consumption,and building a healthy China.

关 键 词：禽肉 消费 演变特征 驱动因素 模拟预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]