2006—2021年杭州市居民溺水死亡趋势分析  

The trend of drowning mortality in Hangzhou,2006-2021

作　　者：张艳[1] 付文[1] 徐珏[1] 刘冰[1] ZHANG Yan;FU Wen;XU Jue;LIU Bing(Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou Health Inspection Instituto,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310021,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州市疾病预防控制中心杭州市卫生监督所,浙江杭州310021

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2024年第10期1300-1303,共4页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：杭州市医药卫生科技项目(A20230192)。

摘　　要：目的了解2006—2021年杭州市居民溺水死亡率及变化趋势,为溺水死亡的防控提供科学依据。方法本研究收集2006—2021年杭州市居民溺水死因监测数据,计算不同性别、年龄和城乡的溺水死亡率,采用2010年全国人口普查数据对死亡率进行标化,拟合线性回归模型计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)进行趋势分析。结果2006—2021年杭州市居民溺水死亡率由4.85/10万下降至3.14/10万,标化死亡率由4.79/10万下降至2.45/10万,下降趋势均差异有统计学意义(APC=-2.57%、-4.21%,P<0.01)。男性溺水死亡率和标化死亡率分别为3.99/10万和3.68/10万,高于女性的2.91/10万和2.47/10万(χ^(2)=108.053、1594.234,P<0.01),男性粗死亡率和标化死亡率、女性粗死亡率和标化死亡率均呈逐年下降趋势,APC分别为-2.47%(t=-4.777,P<0.01)、-4.02%(t=-7.242,P<0.01)、-2.47%(t=-4.835,P<0.01)和-4.50%(t=-7.252,P<0.01)。农村居民溺水粗死亡率和标化死亡率分别为4.95/10万和4.56/10万,高于城市的3.34/10万和2.91/10万,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=171.724、4950.578,P<0.01),城市居民粗死亡率和标化死亡率、农村居民标化死亡率均呈逐年下降趋势,APC分别为-3.92%(t=-5.458,P<0.01)、-5.26%(t=-7.564,P<0.01)和-2.27%(t=-3.536,P<0.01)。2006—2021年≥85岁居民溺水死亡率最高,其次为75~<85岁及0~<5岁组,各组死亡率均呈逐年下降趋势(APC=-14.36%、-10.33%、-1.09%、-2.76%、-2.47%、-4.11%,P<0.05)。结论2006—2021年,杭州居民溺水死亡率呈逐年下降趋势,儿童、男性与老年人是溺水防控工作的重点人群,农村是预防溺水的重点地区。Objective To understand the drowning mortality rate and its changing trend among residents in Hangzhou from 2006 to 2021,and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of drowning deaths.Methods The drowning mortality data of Hangzhou residents from 2006 to 2021 were collected.The drowning mortality rates by gender,age,and urban-rural areas were calculated.The mortality rates were standardized using the 2010 national population census data.Linear regression models were fitted to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)for trend analysis.Results The drowning mortality rate of residents in Hangzhou decreased from 4.85/100000 in 2006 to 3.14/100000 in 2021,and the age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 4.79/100000 to 2.45/100000,both showing statistically significant downward trends(APC=-2.57%,-4.21%,P<0.01).The crude and age-standardized drowning mortality rates were higher in males(3.99/100000 and 3.68/100000)than in females(2.91/100000 and 2.47/100000)(χ^(2)=108.053,1594.234,P<0.01).Both the crude and age-standardized mortality rates in males and females showed a decreasing trend year by year,with APCs of-2.47%(t=-4.777,P<0.01),-4.02%(t=-7.242,P<0.01),-2.47%(t=-4.835,P<0.01),and-4.50%(t=-7.252,P<0.01),respectively.The crude and age-standardized dropping mortality rates of rural residents drowning were 4.95/100000 and 4.56/100000,respectively,higher than the 3.34/100000 and 2.91/100000 in urban areas(χ^(2)=171.724,4950.578,P<0.01),the crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate of urban residents.The standardized mortality rate of rural residents all showed a decreasing trend year by year,with APCs of-3.92%(t=-5.458,P<0.01),-5.26%(t=-7.564,P<0.01),and-2.27%(t=-3.536,P<0.01),respectively.The highest drowning mortality rate was observed in the≥85 age group,followed by the 75-<85 and<5 age groups,all showing a yearly downward trend(APC=-14.36%,-10.33%,-1.09%,-2.76%,-2.47%,-4.11%,P<0.05).Conclusions The drowning mortality rate of residents in Hangzhou has been decreasing year by

关 键 词：溺水 死亡率 趋势分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R195.4[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]