2014—2023年河南省焦作市丙型肝炎流行特征及预测分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo,Henan(2014 to 2023)

作　　者：庞秋艳 董五星[2] PANG Qiuyan;DONG Wuxing(Jiaozuo Centerfor Disease Control and Prevention,Jiaozuo 454003,China;The Second People's Hospital of Jiaozuo City)

机构地区：[1]焦作市疾病预防控制中心,河南焦作454003 [2]焦作市第二人民医院

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2024年第12期902-906,共5页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

摘　　要：目的分析河南省焦作市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)的流行特征,预测短期发病趋势,为制定针对性防控措施提供依据。方法收集传染病报告信息管理系统中2014—2023年焦作市丙肝报告病例资料,采用描述性流行病学方法进行分析,应用SPSS 27.0软件建模预测2024—2025年焦作市丙肝发病趋势。结果2014—2023年焦作市累计报告丙肝病例6827例,死亡10例,年均报告发病率为19.25/10万,报告发病率呈下降的趋势(χ^(2)趋势=662.98,P<0.001)。丙肝报告发病无明显季节性。各县区均有病例报告,年均报告发病率前3位为中站区(37.06/10万)、马村区(36.54/10万)和解放区(27.36/10万)。男性年均报告发病率(16.66/10万)低于女性(21.95/10万)(χ^(2)=129.01,P<0.001),其中男性80~<85年龄组最高(71.28/10万),女性65~<70岁年龄组最高(62.27/10万);发病人群以农民为主(4253例,62.30%)。报告病例分类以临床诊断病例为主(4509例,66.05%)。模型预测2024—2025年焦作市丙肝报告发病数分别为259例和175例。结论焦作市丙肝报告发病率整体呈下降趋势,应在巩固现有丙肝防治措施的基础上,重点强化健康教育宣传、扩大检测早发现、规范治疗管理以及提升报告质量等综合干预工作。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo,Henan,and to predict the short-term incidences,so as to provide evidence for formulating targeted interventions for the prevention and control.Methods Epidemiological data on hepatitis C cases in Jiaozuo City were extracted from the national notifiable disease reporting system spanning from 2014to 2023.Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied,and the SPSS 27.0 software was utilized to project the incidence trend for hepatitis C from 2024 to 2025.Results A total of 6827 hepatitis C cases and 10 deaths were reported,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 19.25/100000.A significant decreasing trend in the reported incidence rate was observed(χ^(2)trend=662.98,P<0.001).Cases were distributed evenly across the year without distinct clustering.The highest incidence rates were noted in Zhongzhan District(37.06/100000),Macun District(36.54/100000),and Jiefang District(27.36/100000).The average annual reported incidence was higher in females(21.95/100000)compared to males(16.66/100000)(χ^(2)=129.01,P<0.001).The age groups with the highest incidence rates were 80-<85 years for males(71.28/100000)and 65-<70 years for females(62.27/100000).The majority of cases(4253,62.30%)were among farmers,and the most cases(4509,66.05%)were clinically diagnosed.Employing Winster′s multiplicative model,the study projected 259 and 175 cases of hepatitis C for 2024and 2025,respectively.Conclusions The reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Jiaozuo City is on the downward trajectory.It is recommended that existing prevention and control measures be reinforced,with an emphasis on strengthening comprehensive interventions such as health education,expanded screening for early detection,standardized treatment protocols,and improved reporting quality to further curtail the incidence of hepatitis C.

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 流行特征 模型预测 

分 类 号：R512.6[医药卫生—内科学]