2002—2021年上海市杨浦区主要慢性病疾病负担及预测分析  

Analysis and predictive analysis of the major chronic disease burden in Yangpu District,Shanghai from 2002 to 2021

作　　者：代银[1] 陈一凡 李辉[1] 赵佳[1] 韩雪[1] 殷建华 DAI Yin;CHEN Yifan;LI Hui;ZHAO Jia;HAN Xue;YIN Jianhua(Yangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Shanghai,Shanghai 200090,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]上海市杨浦区疾病预防控制中心,上海200090 [2]海军军医大学海军医学系海军流行病学教研室

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2024年第9期1185-1190,共6页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市杨浦区卫健系统“好医师”建设工程;上海市杨浦区科学技术委员会和卫生健康委员会科研项目(YPM202123);上海市杨浦区卫生健康委员会医学重点学科(22YPZB12)。

摘　　要：目的分析上海市杨浦区主要慢性病的疾病负担并进行预测,为辖区内慢性病防控工作提供科学依据。方法收集2002—2021年上海市杨浦区户籍居民主要慢性病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病)死亡数据和人口数据资料,采用Excel 2010、Access 2010、Joinpoint 4.9.0.0和R4.3.0软件进行整理分析,率的标化采用2010年第六次人口普查数据。结果2002—2021年杨浦区主要慢性病累计死亡150666例,占总死亡数的84.23%。其中慢性呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率呈下降趋势[平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)=-2.2%,t=-3.8,P<0.05],其他病种均呈上升趋势,且心脑血管疾病的粗死亡率均为历年最高;男性心脑血管疾病(AAPC=-0.8%,t=-1.9,P=0.062)和糖尿病(AAPC=0.9%,t=1.8,P=0.072)标化死亡率的变化趋势差异无统计学意义,其他呈下降趋势。男性心脑血管疾病早死概率的变化趋势差异无统计学意义(AAPC=0,t=-0.1,P=0.947),糖尿病呈上升趋势(APC=1.3%,t=2.6,P<0.05),其他均呈下降趋势。男性及女性主要慢性病的平均减寿年数均呈下降趋势;男性(APC=-2.3%,t=-6.3,P<0.01)及女性(APC=-3.9%,t=-8.4,P<0.01)慢性呼吸系统疾病早死所致寿命损失率呈下降趋势,女性恶性肿瘤(AAPC=-0.1%,t=-0.5,P=0.607)、糖尿病(AAPC=-0.9%,t=-1.3,P=0.186)的变化趋势差异无统计学意义,其他均为上升趋势。预测结果显示,四类慢性病的死亡数都呈现上升趋势,男性糖尿病的标化死亡率上升明显。结论2002—2021年上海市杨浦区户籍居民早死和寿命损失的主要原因为慢性病,男性和糖尿病是今后慢性病防控的重点人群和病种。Objective To analyze and forecast the burden of major non-communicable diseases(NCDs)in Yangpu District of Shanghai and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of NCDs in the district.Methods To collect the death data of major NCDs(cardiovascular diseases,malignant tumors,diabetes,and chronic respiratory diseases)among registered residents in Yangpu District from 2002 to 2021,data was collected,along with population data.Excel 2010,Access 2010,Joinpoint 4.9.0.0,and R4.3.0 softwares were used for data organization and analysis.The standardized rate is based on the data from the sixth population census in 2010.Results From 2002-2021,there were a total of 150666 people who died of major NCDs in the Yangpu District,accounting for 84.23%of the total cases of death.In terms of disease types,the crude mortality rate of cardiocerebral vascular disease was the highest over the years.The crude mortality rate of chronic respiratory disease showed a decreasing trend[average annual percent change(AAPC)=-2.2%,t=-3.8,P<0.05],and the rest showed an increasing trend.There was no significant change in the standardized mortality of male cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases(AAPC=-0.8%,t=-1.9,P=0.062)and diabetes(AAPC=0.9%,t=1.8,P=0.072),while the rest showed a downward trend.The trend of the probability of premature death caused by cardiocerebral vascular disease in males was not statistically significant(AAPC=0,t=-0.1,P=0.947),and diabetes showed an increasing trend(APC=1.3%,t=2.6,P<0.05).However,the rest showed a decreasing trend.The average of years of life lost(AYLL)due to major NCDs in both men and women showed a decreasing trend.The years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL)caused by chronic respiratory disease in males(APC=-2.3%,t=-6.3,P<0.01)and females(APC=-3.9%,t=-8.4,P<0.01)showed a decreasing trend.The trend of YLL caused by cancer(AAPC=-0.1%,t=-0.5,P=0.607)and diabetes(AAPC=-0.9%,t=-0.5,P=0.186)in females was not statistically significant,and the rest were an increasing trend.The pred

关 键 词：慢性病 死亡率 早死概率 寿命损失 预测分析 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]