人口老龄化对农村家庭债务杠杆的影响研究——来自CFPS的经验证据  

Research on the Impact of Ageing on Rural Household Debt Leverage--The Empirical Evidence From CFPS

作　　者：林丽琼 黄晓莉 LIN Li-qiong;HUANG Xiao-li

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《农村金融研究》2024年第10期35-51,共17页Rural Finance Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济下行压力加大条件下农村家庭债务风险生成机理、影响因素及防范机制研究”(编号:19BJY162);福建农林大学习近平生态文明思想研究院开放课题重点项目“新发展格局下绿色金融推动‘双碳’目标实现路径研究——来自中国城市层面的经验证据”(编号:STWMSX23-04)的研究成果。

摘　　要：论文利用2014、2016、2018、2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,构建双向固定效应模型实证检验人口老龄化对农村家庭债务杠杆的影响。研究结果表明,人口老龄化显著负向影响农村家庭债务杠杆。从影响机制来看,人口老龄化通过增加家庭储蓄进而负向影响家庭债务杠杆;但少儿抚养负担、老年人医疗负担、代际向上的经济支持、代际向下的日常照料和经济支持均削弱了人口老龄化对农村家庭债务杠杆的负向影响。从异质性分析结果来看,在低受教育程度、低社会资本、低收入、无重大事件以及东部、中部地区的农村家庭,人口老龄化对家庭债务杠杆的负向影响程度更强。论文为人口老龄化与农村家庭债务杠杆的研究提供了一个新的视角,为优化社会保障制度、防范家庭金融风险以及维护金融稳定提供了经验证据。In this paper, the household panel data of CFPS in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 was used to investigate the influence of aging on rural household debt leverage by using a two-way fixed-effects model. The results show that aging can significantly reduce rural household debt leverage. The results remained reliable after the instrumental variable method was used to alleviate endogenous. The mechanism test shows that aging could significantly decline rural household debt leverage by increasing household savings. However, the burden of child-rearing, the burden of medical care for the elderly, economic support through upward intergenerational transfer, and family care and economic support through downward intergenerational transfer can significantly increase the impact of aging on rural household debt leverage. The impact varies among rural households with low education, low social capital, low income, and no major events, and in the East and Middle regions. This paper complements a comprehensive understanding of the impact of aging on rural household debt leverage and provides evidence for optimizing the social security system, preventing household financial risks, and maintaining financial stability.

关 键 词：人口老龄化程度 农村家庭 债务杠杆 代际支持 少儿抚养 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]