考虑能源-经济-环境-碳排关系的低碳路径研究  

Research on Low-carbon Path Considering the Coordination within Energy-Economy-Environment-Emission

作　　者：黄蕾 林雨洁[3] 籍雯媗 郭创新 Huang Lei;Lin Yujie;Ji Wenxuan;Guo Chuangxin(Newhuadu Business School,Minjiang University,Fuzhou,Fujian,350108;Fujian Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era,Minjiang University Research Base,Fuzhou,Fujian,350108;College of Electrical Engineering,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310027)

机构地区：[1]闽江学院新华都商学院,福建福州350108 [2]福建省习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心闽江学院研究基地,福建福州350108 [3]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《福州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期63-74,171,共13页Journal of Fuzhou University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：福建省创新战略研究联合项目“‘双碳’目标下的数字能源协同创新对策研究”(2022R0148);国家自然科学基金联合基金重点支持项目“资源-气象-环境数据驱动的新型电力系统碳电协同多尺度优化规划与风险调度研究”(U22B2098)。

摘　　要：随着全球碳中和目标的提出,各个国家和地区对于碳排预测与管理需求日益增加。在此背景下,基于能源-经济-环境(Energy-Economic-Environment,3E)协同分析理论,提出一个地区碳排综合分析框架——能源-经济-环境-碳排(Energy-Economic-Environment-Emission,EEEE)框架(又称4E框架),通过分解地区碳排因素、核算碳排总量,谋划多重目标及约束下的碳达峰路径,从而支持地区能源系统与碳排管理,服务政府决策。算例立足福建省域,基于福建省“十四五”能源发展专项规划、福建省统计年鉴等实际数据,建立4E框架下的长期能源替代规划系统(Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System,LEAP)模型,计算并分析4E因素影响下行业部门能源消费与碳排总量,为低碳发展路径提供指导。4E框架融合地区能源消耗模式、经济发展规模与环境结构变迁等因素,实现对碳排路径的监测和优化,更好地服务于地区碳排减缓策略的制定和执行,助力我国乃至全球应对气候变化挑战。With the proposal of global carbon neutrality,the demand for carbon emission prediction and management across various regions is increasing drastically.Based on the Energy-Economic-Environment(3E)theory,this paper proposes a regional analysis framework for carbon emission trajectory depiction under 3E indicators:Energy-Economic-Environment-Emission framework,i.e.4E framework.The 4E framework decomposes the root factors of regional carbon emissions,accounts for the total carbon emissions,and plans the path to carbon peak under multiple objective constraints which supports the management of regional energy systems and carbon emissions and government decision-making.Case study of Fujian province based on its plans on developing energy technologies and statistic yearbooks is conducted to calculate and analyze the energy consumption and carbon emissions of various sectors under 4E framework,which provides valuable insight for suitable regional low-carbon development path.The 4E framework's integration of economic scale,structural changes,and energy consumption patterns enables effective monitoring and optimization of carbon emission trajectories.This approach significantly aids in the development and implementation of regional carbon emission reduction strategies,thereby contributing to the global effort to address climate change challenges.

关 键 词：4E框架 碳计量 碳市场 低碳转型 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]