联盟的国内效应与美菲、美泰关系演变  

The Evolution of U.S.-Philippine and U.S.-Thai Relationships under the Domestic Effects of Alliances

作　　者：魏冰 王彦飞 WEI Bing;WANG Yanfei(Beijing Foreign Studies University,Beijing 100089;Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350108)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学,北京100089 [2]福州大学,福建福州350108

出　　处：《太平洋学报》2024年第11期47-60,共14页Pacific Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“中国海外安全保障能力建设研究”(24CGJ002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国为护持霸权地位,持续强化全球联盟体系。但是在东南亚地区,美菲联盟和美泰联盟的发展趋势却呈现明显的差异性。本文聚焦于联盟关系与小国成员国内政治的互动,提出联盟关系的变化会影响小国成员的国内政治,最终通过“捆绑效应”和“脱钩效应”两种机制反作用于联盟关系。具体而言,当联盟合作长期保持紧密时,小国国内会发展出支持联盟的安全利益集团,这股力量会在本国试图推行与联盟相悖的政策时施加阻碍,导致其难以脱离联盟而采取行动,由此构成联盟的“捆绑效应”。与之相对,当联盟关系长期疏远时,小国可能与第三方大国发展经济关系,从而在其国内培育出对第三方大国友好的经济利益集团,这股力量会在大国盟友为打压该第三方大国而试图加强与小国的合作时施加阻碍,导致前者难以按照预期实现联盟合作,由此构成联盟的“脱钩效应”。菲律宾政府难以摆脱美菲联盟的约束,以及美国难以拉拢泰国加入其地区战略布局,分别反映了两种效应的作用过程。关于联盟国内效应的研究拓展了联盟理论,对中国周边外交的开展也有一定的启发。The United States has continued to strengthen its global alliance system to maintain hegemony.However,in Southeast Asia,there are obvious differences in the development trend between the U.S.-Philippine alliance and the U.S.-Thai alliance.Focusing on the interaction between alliance relations and the domestic politics of small members,this paper proposes that changes in alliance relations affect the domestic politics of small members,and ultimately backfire on alliance relations through two mechanisms namely the“tying effect”and the“decoupling effect”.Specifically,the strong and long-term alliance cooperation drives its domestic security interest groups to develop within the small member in support of the alliance,and this force hinders the country’s attempts to pursue policies contrary to the alliance.It will make it difficult for the country to act outside of the alliance,thus constituting the alliance’s“tying effect”.In contrast,when the alliance relationship is distant for a long period of time,the small member may develop economic relations with a great third-party power.It fosters an economic interest group friendly to the third-party power within its own country,imposing obstacles to strengthening cooperation with the small member in order to suppress the third-party power.It will make it difficult for the former to realize the cooperation within the alliance according to the expectation,which constitutes the decoupling effect of the alliance.The Philippine government’s difficulty in breaking away from the U.S.-Philippine alliance and the difficulty of the US in drawing Thailand into its regional strategic dispositions reflect the course of the two effects.The study on the domestic effects of alliances expands the theory of alliances,and also sheds light on the development of China’s periphery diplomacy in developing its relations with Southeast Asian countries.

关 键 词：联盟 美菲联盟 美泰联盟 国内政治 中国周边外交 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]