“高边疆”威慑与霸权护持:拜登政府太空威慑战略的推进与限度  

“Higher Frontier”Deterrence and Hegemonic Maintenance:Promotion and Limits of Biden Administration's Space Deterrence Strategy

作　　者：黄硕 Huang Shuo

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院 [2]南京大学亚太发展中心

出　　处：《印度洋经济体研究》2024年第6期1-26,154,共27页Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review

摘　　要：在“天缘政治”时代,太空威慑战略正在成为霸权体系的重要塑造因素,突出表现为霸权国以其战略能力来强化整体威慑效应、以其威胁认知来评估全球政治格局的安全风险、以其利益—目标界定来强化在国际制度体系中的话语权并以其手段选择来护持在全球军事格局中的军事霸权,最终实现霸权护持的目标。自上台以来,拜登政府逐步构建了清晰的太空威慑路径并形成了鲜明的战略特点。在威慑路径方面,拜登政府通过在太空、向太空、从太空和经过太空等构建了多维一体的威慑框架,呈现出威慑对象日益聚焦、攻防兼备的战略属性和体系化的推进态势等战略特点。但是,国内政治极化、太空资产的固有弱点、美国对太空资产的过度依赖以及威慑理论与霸权稳定论相结合形成的霸权悖论等因素也是牵制拜登政府推进太空威慑战略、实现霸权护持目标的阻碍因素。近期,2024年美国总统大选落下帷幕,秉持“大国竞争”“美国优先”且将太空视为“作战域”的共和党候选人特朗普再次当选美国总统,他任期内的美国太空威慑战略是否会延续拜登政府的战略导向,仍有待观察。但可以肯定的是,太空威慑战略也将是特朗普政府实现“使美国再次伟大”的重要战略工具。In the era of“Astropolitics”,the Space Deterrence Strategy is becom-ing an important shaping factor of the Hegemonic System,highlighted by the hegemonic country using its strategic abilities to enhance its overall deterrence effects,evaluating the security risks of the global political landscape based on its threat perception,strengthening its discourse power in the international institutional system based on its in-terests and goals,and using its means to protect its military hegemony in the global mili-tary landscape,ultimately achieving the goal of hegemonic protection.Since taking of-fice,the Biden Administration has gradually established clear paths of deterrence and formed distinct strategic characteristics.As for the deterrence paths,the Biden Admin-istration has established a multidimensional and integrated deterrence framework through“in space”,“to space”,“from space”,and“through space”.The strategic character-istics are reflected in the increasingly focused deterrence targets,the strategic attributes of both offense and defense,and the systematic strategic promotion situation.However,the domestic political polarization,the logical dilemma between inherent weaknesses in space assets and excessive dependence on space assets,as well as the hegemonic para-dox formed by the combination of deterrence theory and hegemonic stability theory,are obstacles to the space deterrence strategy of Biden administration,making it hard to a-chieve the goal of hegemonic maintenance.The 2024 U.S.presidential election has come to an end,adhering to the“great power competition”,“America first”and the space as a“war domain”,the Republican candidate Trump was re-elected president of the U.S.It remains to be seen whether the U.S.space deterrence strategy during his term will continue the strategic orientation of the Biden administration.However,it cannot be denied that the space deterrence strategy will be an important strategic tool for the Trump administration to achieve“Making America Great Ag

关 键 词：“高边疆”威慑 霸权护持 太空威慑 大国竞争 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]