乡村治理、农村家庭劳动力资源分配与返贫预防——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析  

Rural Governance,Rural Household Labor Resources Allocation and Return-to-Poverty Prevention--An Empirical Analysis Based on the Perspective of Poverty Vulnerability

作　　者：高静 张榆琴[2] 李学坤[2] GAO Jing;ZHANG Yuqin;LI Xuekun(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100000,China;School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Agricultural University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [2]云南农业大学经济管理学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第12期136-152,共17页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“西南边疆少数民族农村家庭相对贫困的多维评价、测度和治理研究”(21bmz053);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“西部民族地区脱贫农户增强抗逆力与提升自我发展能力路径研究”(20YJAZH134)。

摘　　要：优化劳动力资源配置,降低农户贫困脆弱性是做好返贫防范、守住规模性返贫底线的核心内容,这不仅有利于巩固脱贫攻坚成果,还为共同富裕提供了坚实的保障。文章基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,运用固定效应模型和工具变量法实证检验乡村治理政策对农户家庭劳动力资源分配决策的影响,并进一步分析其增收、抑贫成效。结果表明:有效的乡村治理促使农户增加务工和创业劳动力投入、减少农业生产经营人数,显著提高了农户的经济利益。同时,其也会通过增加农户非经济利益促进劳动力返乡,间接带动农户阻断返贫,且这一结果存在收入异质性;进一步基于动态指标研究发现,乡村治理对农户未来返贫概率呈倒“U”型影响;异质性分析发现,乡村治理明显降低非土地流转户、青年农户、低教育水平农户的贫困脆弱性,不存在地区异质性。据此,建议提高乡村治理水平,进一步优化劳动力资源在城乡间的配置,并对农户返贫风险做好事前预测。此外,应针对不同地区、不同特征类型的农户实施差异化的乡村治理策略,以此精准预防返贫风险。Optimizing the allocation of labor resources and reducing the vulnerability of rural households to poverty is the core content of preventing the return to poverty and holding the bottom line of large-scale return-to-poverty,which will not only help consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation struggles,but also provide a solid guarantee for common prosperity.Based on the data of China Household Tracking Survey(CFPS)in 2018,the fixed effect model and instrumental variable method are used to empirically test the impact of rural governance policies on labor resources allocation decisions of rural households,and further analyze their effects on income increase and poverty reduction.The results show that effective rural governance can promote farmers to increase the input of migrant workers and entrepreneurial labor,reduce the number of agricultural production and management,and significantly improve the economic interests of farmers.It will also promote the return of labor by increasing the non-economic benefits of farmers,indirectly driving farmers to block their return to poverty,and this result has income heterogeneity.Further based on dynamic indicators,it is found that rural governance has an inverted U-shaped effect on the probability of farmers returning to poverty in the future.A heterogeneity analysis finds that rural governance significantly reduces the poverty vulnerability of non-land transfer households,young farmers and farmers with low education level,and there is no regional heterogeneity.Therefore,it is suggested to improve the level of rural governance,further optimize the allocation of labor resources between urban and rural areas,and conduct an in-advance prediction of the risk of farmers returning to poverty.In addition,differentiated rural governance strategies should be implemented for farmers in different regions and with different characteristics to accurately prevent the risk of returning to poverty.

关 键 词：乡村治理 劳动力资源分配 贫困脆弱性 收入异质性 收入结构 

分 类 号：F310[经济管理—产业经济]