人力资本贬值预期与家庭消费  

Human Capital Depreciation Expectation and Consumption

作　　者：徐巧玲 王玥 XU Qiao-ling;WANG Yue(Department of Economics and Management,Taiyuan Institute of Technology;School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

机构地区：[1]太原工业学院经济与管理系 [2]华中科技大学管理学院

出　　处：《消费经济》2024年第5期52-65,共14页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72104189);太原工业学院引进人才科研资助项目(2023KJ047)。

摘　　要：本文基于2016年中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS)和美国职业信息系统(O*NET)数据,实证检验了人力资本贬值预期对家庭消费的影响,结果显示:(1)人力资本贬值预期降低了家庭消费支出。(2)人力资本贬值预期改变了家庭消费结构,极大降低了家庭文化教育和旅游消费,不利于消费升级和人力资本积累。(3)人力资本贬值预期对中等和低等收入群体及消费群体的抑制效应显著,对高收入和高消费家庭的抑制效应不显著,人力资本贬值预期加剧了消费不平等。(4)人力资本贬值预期降低了城乡劳动者的消费水平,且对农村家庭和未参加城镇职工保险的家庭影响更大。(5)人力资本贬值预期通过增加预防性储蓄动机,非充分就业和过度劳动降低家庭消费意愿、消费能力和消费时间,从而降低家庭消费。基于以上结论,本文从降低人力资本贬值和稳定预期两个视角提出促进消费的相关对策建议。Based on the 2016 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey(CLDS)and O*Net occupational database from the United States,this paper empirically examines the impact of anticipated human capital depreciation on household consumption.The findings indicate:(1)The expectation of human capital depreciation reduces household consumption expenditure.(2)The expectation of human capital depreciation alters the structure of household consumption,significantly decreasing spending on cultural education and tourism,which is detrimental to the upgrading of consumption and the accumulation of human capital.(3)The suppressive effect of the expectation of human capital depreciation on the consumption of middle and low-income groups and consumer groups is pronounced,whereas it is not significant for high-income and high-consuming households,thereby intensifying consumption inequality.(4)The expectation of human capital depreciation decreases the consumption levels of urban and rural laborers,with a more substantial impact on rural families and those not enrolled in urban employee insurance.(5)The expectation of human capital depreciation reduces household consumption willingness,capacity,and time by increasing the motive for precautionary savings,underemployment,and overwork,thus lowering household consumption.Based on the aforementioned conclusions,this study proposes relevant policy recommendations for promoting consumption from the perspectives of mitigating human capital depreciation and stabilizing expectations.

关 键 词：人力资本贬值预期 预防性储蓄动机 充分就业 过度劳动 消费 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]