新型冠状病毒感染疫情发生前后广州市流感流行水平和时空聚集性分析  

Epidemic level and spatiotemporal clustering of influenza in Guangzhou before and after COVID-19 pandemic

作　　者：马蒙蒙 姚汶伶 殷尚晖 罗雷[1] MA Mengmeng;YAO Wenling;YIN Shanghui;LUO Lei(Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510440,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广州市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制部,广东广州510440

出　　处：《中国病毒病杂志》2024年第5期439-444,共6页Chinese Journal of Viral Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(82073665);广州市卫生健康科技项目(20241A010054)。

摘　　要：目的评价广州市在新型冠状病毒(新冠病毒)感染疫情发生前后流行性感冒(流感)流行水平和时空聚集性的变化,为后疫情时代流感流行风险研判提供重要参考。方法采用综合指数法,选择2015—2019年度流感监测数据建立的流感流行水平分级评价体系,以评价广州市在新冠病毒感染疫情发生后(2020年第4周至2022年第52周,共154周)的流感流行水平等级变化,并采用回顾性时空扫描分析,探索新冠病毒感染疫情前后流感病例时空聚集性变化。结果在新冠病毒感染疫情发生后流感流行水平骤降,自2020年第7周—2021年第46周一直维持在1级非流行水平,于2021年第52周—2022年第1周和2022年第8—10周出现冬季3级中水平流行,于2022年第20周进入夏季流行并于第22—27周出现5级极高水平流行。新冠病毒感染疫情发生后流感流行等级秩平均值188.00低于新冠病毒感染疫情发生前秩平均值222.04(Z=-3.325,P<0.01)。时空扫描分析显示,新冠病毒感染疫情前一类聚集区为中心城区的海珠、越秀和天河区,新冠病毒感染疫情后一类聚集区转变为南部及中南部的南沙、番禺和海珠区,聚集时间均出现在夏冬季。结论新冠病毒感染疫情发生后广州市流感整体流行水平低于新冠病毒感染疫情前,新冠病毒感染疫情发生后广州市流感仍然存在时空聚集性,且一类聚集区的空间区域较新冠病毒感染疫情发生前有所变化,由中心城区向中南部城区转移,夏冬季依然为防控重点季节。卫生部门应针对聚集地区和流行时间提早做好预案,以有效控制流感流行。Objective To evaluate the changes in influenza epidemic levels and spatiotemporal clustering in Guangzhou before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 to provide references for the risk assessment of the influenza epidemic in the post-epidemic era.Methods By using the synthetic index method,the influenza surveillance data from 2015 to 2019 were selected to establish a graded evaluation system of influenza epidemic level and to evaluate the changes in influenza epidemic level in Guangzhou after the COVID-19 epidemic(from the 4th week of 2020 to the 52nd week of 2022,a total of 154 weeks).Additionally,retrospective spatiotemporal scan analysis was used to explore the temporal and spatial distribution changes of influenza cases before and after the COVID-19 epidemic.Results After the outbreak of COVID-19,the epidemic level of influenza dropped sharply,maintaining a non-epidemic level(Grade 1)from the 7th week of 2020 to the 46th week of 2021.A moderate epidemic(Grade 3)was observed during the winter weeks of the 52nd week of 2021 to the 1st week of 2022 and from the 8th to the 10th week of 2022.By the 20th week of 2022,influenza entered a summer epidemic phase,reaching a peak(Grade 5)from the 22nd to the 27th week.The average rank of influenza epidemic levels post-COVID-19(188.00)was significantly lower than that before the pandemic(Z=-3.325,P<0.01).Spatiotemporal scan analysis shows that prior to the pandemic,significant clustering areas were concentrated in Haizhu,Yuexiu,and Tianhe districts.After the pandemic,these areas shifted to Nansha,Panyu,and Haizhu districts in the southern and central-southern regions,with clustering periods occurring in the summer and winter.Conclusion Overall,the influenza epidemic level in Guangzhou post-COVID-19 is lower than that prior to the pandemic,yet spatiotemporal clustering persists.The spatial area of the first-class gathering area changed compared with that before the COVID-19 epidemic,shifting from the central city to the central-southern city.Summer and winter were still the

关 键 词：流行性感冒 综合指数 时空聚集性 新型冠状病毒感染 发病变化 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]