基于两阶段鲁棒优化和改进灰色关联理论的新能源调度潜力评估  

Assessment of New Energy Scheduling Potential Based on Two-Stage Robust Optimization and Improved Grey Relational Theory

作　　者：钱龙 王政 方毛林 殷敏 王磊 方福歆 李坤 吕严兵 QIAN Long;WANG Zheng;FANG Maolin;YIN Min;WANG Lei;FANG Fuxin;LI Kun;LYU Yanbing(State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Economic Research Institute,Hefei 237000,China;State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei 230000,China)

机构地区：[1]国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥237000 [2]国网安徽省电力有限公司,安徽合肥230000

出　　处：《安徽电气工程职业技术学院学报》2024年第4期13-27,共15页Journal of Anhui Electrical Engineering Professional Technique College

摘　　要：新能源的大规模并网是当今能源发展的主要趋势,其出力的波动性对电网的经济调度产生了一系列的影响。文章提出了一种基于两阶段鲁棒优化和改进灰色关联理论的可调度潜力评估模型,将风电机组和分布式光伏电站对微电网经济运行的影响综合量化分析。首先通过改变风电机组和分布式光伏电站的鲁棒性指标模拟其出力的波动,生成多场景下微电网经济运行成本数据,再采用改进的灰色关联理论分析新能源与各项调度成本之间的关联性,随后对各项关联度进行加权分析得到新能源与调度运行总成本的关联度,最终通过对关联度进行比较,辨识出影响微电网调度运行的关键新能源。实验结果表明,文章提出的方法相比传统的灰色关联度方法,在指标精确性上提高了30.6%,模型计算复杂度较非加权分析法下降了41.3%。文章提出的方法将为微电网的前期建设规划和调度经济运行提供参考。The large-scale integration of new energy into the grid is the main trend of energy development today and its output fluctuations has a series of effects on the economic dispatch of the power grid.This paper proposes a schedulable potential assessment model based on two-stage robust optimization and improved grey relational theory and comprehensively analyzes the effects of wind turbines and distributed photovoltaic power stations on the economic operation of microgrids.The output fluctuations are first simulated by changing the robustness indicators of wind turbines and distributed photovoltaic stations.Economic operation cost data of the microgrid under multiple scenarios are generated.Improved grey relational theory is then used to analyze the correlations between new energy and various scheduling costs and they are weighted to obtain the correlation between new energy and total dispatch operation costs.By comparing correlation degrees,the key new energy source influencing microgrid dispatching is identified.The experimental results show that the proposed method improves accuracy by 30.6%compared to traditional grey relational methods,while reducing model complexity by 41.3%compared to non-weighted analysis methods,which provides a reference for the early-stage construction planning and economic operation of microgrids.

关 键 词：新能源调度 调度潜力评估 鲁棒优化 灰色关联理论 熵权法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]