基线选择对热浪事件计算方法的影响  

Comparation among differences methods of heat wave events estimation

作　　者：陈远 范宏翔 彭凯 邓建明[1] 彭霁虹 Chen Yuan;Fan Hongxiang;Peng Kai;Deng Jianming;Peng Jihong(Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China;Chongqing Yisen Stone Environmental Technology Co.,LTD,Chongqing 400000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008 [2]重庆亿森动力环境科技有限公司,重庆400000

出　　处：《河南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2025年第1期125-135,共11页Journal of Henan Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3202004);国家自然科学基金(42220104010).

摘　　要：热浪已成为世界上危害性最大的自然灾害之一,近年来全球都经历了日益刷新纪录的热浪事件,然而学术界还没有统一热浪定义.基于对目前还存在争议的热浪基线选择(即参考气候背景)进行研究.通过统计1951-2022年我国692个气象站逐日平均气温数据,基于分位数法对比了固定基线、变化基线和滑动基线3种方法对于暴发频次、持续天数、最大强度和热浪间隔时间等4个关键热浪指数进行比较.结果显示,受全球变暖的影响,固定基线法(选择1951-1980年为气候背景计算相对阈值)倾向于提高当前热浪发生概率的估计,而变化基线法(以历史所有数据作为气候背景计算依据)和滑动基线法(以每年的前30 a数据作为基线计算依据)则能在一定程度上考虑温度平稳变化的影响;3种基线计算方法得到的热浪指数仅在绝对值上存在显著差异,而对于热浪指数长期变化趋势、空间分布规律等具有高度的一致性.基于生物在长期进化中具有适应环境的特点,建议采用滑动基线法将一段时期的气候态背景作为热浪判断依据,重点关注热浪造成的生物的响应和生态影响.Heat waves have become one of the most harmful natural disasters in the world,and in recent years,the world has suffered from increasingly record-breaking heat wave events.There is no unified definition of heat waves in the academic community,and this study discusses the controversial baseline selection of heat waves(referring to climate background).Based on the daily average temperature data of 692 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2022,three methods,fixed baseline,running baseline,and increasing baseline,were compared using the quantile method to compare the four key heat wave indices,including outbreak frequency,duration,maximum intensity,and recurrence days.The results showed that due to the impact of global warming,the fixed baseline method(selecting 1951 to 1980 as the relative threshold for climate background calculation)tends to improve the estimation of the probability of current heat wave occurrence,while the increasing baseline method(using all historical data as the basis for climate background calculation)and the running baseline method(using the forward thirty years of each year as the basis for baseline calculation)can consider the impact of stable temperature changes.The heat wave index obtained by the three baseline calculation methods only showed significant differences in absolute values,while there is a high degree of consistency in the long-term trend and spatial distribution of the heat wave indexes.Basing on the adaptation characteristics of organisms to the environment in long-term evolution,we suggest using the running baseline method to determine the climate background over a period of time as the base line for heat waves,with a focus on the response and ecological impact of organisms caused by heat waves.

关 键 词：极端事件 热浪定义 逐日气温 气候基线 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]