1990-2020年中国的婚姻状况变迁  

The Marriage Status and Its Changes in China:1990-2020

作　　者：陈卫[1] 方震寰 董隽含 CHEN Wei;FANG Zhen-huan;DONG Juan-han(Population and Development Studies Center,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《南方人口》2024年第6期1-11,共11页South China Population

基　　金：教育部人文社科基地重大项目“中国的婚育转变、人口新形态与积极应对策略”(20231JY0051)。

摘　　要：本文使用1990-2020年全国人口普查数据,应用多增-减婚姻生命表和间接估计法估算了我国人口的婚姻生命表,考察了我国人口的婚姻状况变迁模式。研究发现:(1)我国存在较为明显的婚姻推迟现象;(2)有配偶预期寿命占预期寿命的比重下降;(3)离婚水平有所增加,离婚预期寿命及其占预期寿命的比重不断提升,但整体离婚水平处于较低水平;(4)死亡水平的下降促使我国人口的丧偶预期寿命及其占预期寿命的比重有所降低。总体来看,我国当前仍是婚姻结构比较稳定的普婚型国家,但受婚姻推迟和离婚水平升高等影响,婚姻稳定性在未来可能进一步减弱。此外,女性婚姻状况的变迁趋势比男性更加明显,婚姻推迟和离婚现象更为突出。Using China’s census data from 1990 to 2020,this study employs the marital life table for China’s population and examines the pattern changes in marital status by multi-state increment-decrement marital life table and indirect estimation method.The findings reveal that:(1)there is a significant trend of delayed marriage in China;(2)the proportion of life expectancy living with spouse has decreased;(3)divorce rates have been rising while the overall divorce levels remain relatively low,but the life expectancy after divorce and its proportion accounting for the total life expectancy continued to increase.(4)declining mortality rates reduces the widowed life expectancy and its proportion within total life expectancy.Generally speaking,China remains a predominantly marriageoriented society with a relatively stable marital structure.However,factors such as delayed marriage and rising divorce rates may further weaken marital stability in the future.Additionally,the changes in women’s marital status are more pronounced with more prominent delayed marriage and divorce rate.

关 键 词：婚姻状况 多增-减婚姻生命表 间接估计法 婚姻寿命 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]