喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征  

Spatio-Temporal Differentiation Characteristics of Glacial Lake Outburst in the Himalayas

作　　者：邹强[1] 周斌[1,2] 杨涛 陈思谕[1,3] 姚鸿坤 蒋虎 周文韬[1,2] Zou Qiang;Zhou Bin;Yang Tao;Chen Siyu;Yao Hongkun;Jiang Hu;Zhou Wentao(State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Environment and Resources,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所山地自然灾害与工程安全全国重点实验室,四川成都610299 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川绵阳621010

出　　处：《地球科学》2024年第11期4047-4062,共16页Earth Science

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(No.2019QZKK0902);国家自然科学基金项目(No.42171085);中国科学院“西部之光‒西部交叉团队”项目(No.xbzg-zdsys-202104).

摘　　要：全球气候变暖导致了喜马拉雅高海拔山区的环境变化,冰湖溃决频繁发生,给下游人民和设施造成了巨大的损失.为了解喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空分异特征,利用地貌分析、时序分析和气候扰动分析方法,分析了喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰川冰湖变化及环境特征,阐明了喜马拉雅高海拔山区冰湖溃决时空格局和演化规律.结果表明:(1)1980‒2014年间喜马拉雅高海拔山区气温和降水均显著增加,且增加速率北坡大于南坡.受地形与气候条件控制,喜马拉雅山北坡冰川损失更为严重;西喜马拉雅比东、中喜马拉雅冰川损失更为严重.冰湖集中分布在中喜马拉雅地区,而喜马拉雅山南坡分布冰湖相对于北坡更多.1990‒2015年间南坡冰湖数量与面积增幅均大于北坡,新增冰湖海拔高于消失冰湖.(2)20世纪以来,喜马拉雅及周边高海拔山区113个冰湖发生了249次溃决;溃决冰湖集中分布在河流陡河段或极陡河段;气候变暖导致区域冰湖溃决数量呈现非线性增加趋势,1901‒2020年间冰湖溃决存在断点1966+37/‒31年,冰湖溃决对升温速率存在20年尺度的滞后效应.研究结果可为应对气候变化下防灾减灾和跨境灾害风险防控提供科学依据.Global warming has led to environmental changes in the Himalayas,and glacial lake outburst has occurred frequently,having inflicted significant losses upon downstream communities and infrastructure.To understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of Himalayan glacial lake outbursts,it employed geomorphic analysis,time series analysis,and climate perturbation analysis.These methods allowed us to analyze the spatial differentiation and variation characteristics of glaciers,glacial lakes and environments in the Himalayas,and to reveal the evolution patterns of glacial lake outbursts’spatio-temporal distribution in the region.The results show follows:(1)Temperature and precipitation has increased considerably in the Himalayan region between 1980 and 2014,with a more significant increase rate observed on the northern than southern sides.Due to the influence of topography and climate,the northern slope of Himalayas and western Himalayas experienced more severe glacier mass loss.Glacial lakes were predominantly concentrated in the central Himalayas and the southern slope of Himalayas,and the number and area of glacial lakes on the southern slopes have increased more than those on the northern slopes during 1990‒2015,and the new glacial lakes are distributed at a higher elevation than the disappearing ones.(2)Since the 20th century,249 glacial lake outburst events have occurred in 113 glacial lakes in the Himalayan region and its surrounding areas.The distribution of those glacial lakes is predominantly concentrated in major rivers’steep or extremely steep sections.The number of regional glacial lake outbursts has shown a nonlinear increase trend driven by climate change.The occurrence frequency of glacial lake outburst disasters has a breakpoint of 1966+37/-31 from 1901 to 2020.Furthermore,there is a lag effect of approximately 20 years between the warming rate and the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods.These research findings can provide a scientific basis for addressing climate change adaptation,disaste

关 键 词：冰湖溃决 分异规律 气候变化 喜马拉雅 环境地质 地质灾害. 

分 类 号：P951[天文地球—自然地理学]