基于气象再分析数据的泸州市降水演变规律研究  

The Evolutionary Patterns of Precipitation in Luzhou City Based on Meteorological Reanalysis Data

作　　者：郭懿靓 贾鹏 郭巍巍[3] GUO Yiliang;JIA Peng;GUO Weiwei(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Appraisal Center for Environment and Engineering,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100041,China;China Water Resources Beifang Investigation,Design and Research Co.Ltd.,Tianjin 300222,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]生态环境部环境工程评估中心,北京100041 [3]中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司,天津300222

出　　处：《环境影响评价》2024年第6期60-68,共9页Environmental Impact Assessment

基　　金：长江生态环境保护修复联合研究(第二期)(2022-LHYJ-02-05-01)。

摘　　要：本文根据气象再分析中国逐日降水数据集,整合计算得到四川省泸州市1961—2022年的逐日降水序列,借助Mann-Kendall检验、Sen′s斜率估计法、创新性趋势分析法、滑动T检验和Morlet小波分析等方法对泸州市降水年际变化规律和年内分配规律进行了分析。分析结果表明:泸州市年降水量序列在2011年发生了跳跃变异。变异后年尺度上的极端降水天数和极端降水量虽呈现显著的下降趋势,但整体上平均态明显高于2011年之前;年降水天数序列则无明显增减趋势。1961—2022年的泸州市年降水量序列具有越来越明显的周期性。泸州市降水季节差异较大,降水年内分配特征变化总体上为无趋势或不显著的下降趋势。降水集中度(PCD)的不显著下降趋势集中于低值区和高值区;降水不均匀系数(Cv)、完全调节系数(Cr)在低、中、高值区的增减趋势较为一致,不显著的下降趋势主要位于中低值区。Based on the meteorological reanalysis of the daily precipitation data in China,the daily precipitation sequence of Luzhou City,Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022 was calculated and analyzed by methods such as Mann-Kendall test,Sen′s slope estimation method,innovative trend analysis,the sliding T-test and Morlet wavelet analysis to explore the inter-annual variation and intra-annual distribution patterns of precipitation in Luzhou City.The results indicate that a significant jump change occurred in the annual precipitation series in 2011.Following the change,although there is a significant decreasing trend in the number of extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation amount at the annual scale,the overall mean is significantly higher than before 2011.There is no obvious upward or downward trend in the annual precipitation days series.The annual precipitation series in Luzhou City from 1961 to 2022 shows an increasingly evident periodicity.The precipitation in Luzhou City exhibits significant seasonal variation,with the overall characteristics of the changes in the intra-annual distribution showing no trend or a non-significant decreasing trend.The non-significant decreasing trend in precipitation concentration degree(PCD)is concentrated in the low-value and high-value areas;the increase and decrease trends of precipitation unevenness(Cv)and complete regulation coefficient(Cr)in the low,medium,and high-value areas are fairly consistent,with the non-significant decreasing trend mainly located in the middle and low-value areas.

关 键 词：气象再分析 泸州市 降水规律 MANN-KENDALL检验 Sen′s斜率估计法 创新性趋势分析法 滑动T检验 Morlet小波分析法 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]