2000-2020年新疆地区生态环境变化和驱动因子研究  

Ecological Environment Changes and their Attribution in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020

作　　者：熊萍 乔海亮 刘明 XIONG Ping;QIAO Hai-liang;LIU Ming(Shaanxi Institute of Forest Inventory and Planning,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710015)

机构地区：[1]陕西省林业调查规划院,陕西西安710015

出　　处：《陕西林业科技》2024年第6期23-27,41,共6页Shaanxi Forest Science and Technology

摘　　要：科学评估生态环境质量问题对于实现区域生态可持续发展至关重要。然而,当前生态环境质量变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应规律还不明确,理解这些规律对研究区域生态环境保护具有重要意义。本研究借助Google Earth Engine(GEE)云平台2000-2020年MODIS数据集,采用主成分分析法构建遥感生态指数(RSEI),利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验、Hurst指数、多元回归残差分析和偏相关法等方法,探究新疆地区21a生态环境变化及其驱动力。结果表明:(1)人类活动对生态环境质量的影响总体呈现减弱趋势,减弱趋势面积占新疆地区总面积的54.9%,并且人类活动对新疆地区生态环境质量未来的变化趋势影响与过去相反,将呈现上升趋势;(2)气温和降水与生态环境质量的偏相关系数均值分别为-0.027和0.285,并且在空间尺度上降水的相关性高于气温,是影响新疆地区生态环境质量的主要影响因素。Scientific assessment of ecological environmental quality is crucial for achieving regional ecological sustainability.However,the current changes in ecological environmental quality and its response patterns to climate change and human activities remain unclear.Understanding these patterns is of great significance for studying regional ecological environmental protection.This study utilizes the MODIS dataset from 2000 to 2020 on the Google Earth Engine(GEE)cloud platform to construct the Remote Sensing Ecological Index(RSEI)using principal component analysis.Methods such as Theil-Sen Median trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,Hurst index,multiple regression residual analysis,and partial correlation analysis are employed to explore the ecological environmental changes and their driving forces in Xinjiang over the past 21 years.The results showed that:(1)The impact of human activities on ecological environmental quality generally shows a decreasing trend,with the decreasing trend area accounting for 54.9%of the total area of Xinjiang.Moreover,the impact of human activities on the future trend of ecological environmental quality in Xinjiang will be opposite to the past,showing an upward trend;(2)The mean partial correlation coefficients between temperature and precipitation with ecological environmental quality are-0.027 and 0.285,respectively.Precipitation has a higher correlation than temperature on a spatial scale,making it the primary influencing factor affecting the ecological environmental quality in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：新疆地区 RSEI Sen+Mannl-Kendall 多元回归残差分析 

分 类 号：P23[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感]