英国政府反恐战略演变:对CONTEST报告文本的量化分析  

The Evolution of the UK Government’s Counter-terrorism Strategies:A Quantitative Analysis of the CONTEST Report Text

作　　者：王力[1] 刘明辉[1] Wang Li;Liu Minghui(School of National Security,People’s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学国家安全学院,北京100038

出　　处：《情报探索》2024年第12期25-33,共9页Information Research

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费重点项目“基于数据技术的恐怖活动人员、组织特征与演化模型构建研究”(项目编号:2021JKF216);中国人民公安大学国家安全高精尖学科资助项目“聚类分析方法在涉恐风险评估中的应用研究”(项目编号:2020GDLW010)成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]通过对英国政府CONTEST战略进行研究,可以深入理解其政策的发展脉络和变化趋势,有助于更好地认识英国政府在反恐领域所面临的挑战和应对策略,对推动我国政策发展具有重要的参考意义。[方法/过程]以5份英国反恐战略文本为研究对象,构建了包含文本挖掘、政策工具、PMC曲面构建的分析框架,进而对英国政府的反恐政策进行比较分析。[结果/结论]文本挖掘方面,英国反恐的重点包括机构协作、情报收集和国际合作等,覆盖范围广;政策工具方面,英国反恐战略多使用供给型和环境型政策工具,较少使用需求型政策工具;PMC指数评价模型方面,选取的5份政策中有2份评分优秀,2份评价良好,1份为一般等级,无不良等级政策。提出我国应加大对反恐领域的政策支持力度,加强国家安全人才培养体系建设,重视使用需求型和环境型政策工具,加强自主发展能力和协同创新能力等建议。[Purpose/significance]Through the study of the British government’s CONTEST strategy,we can deeply understand the development context and the changing trend of its policies,which is helpful to better understand the challenges and coping strategies faced by the British government in the field of counter-terrorism,and has important reference significance for promoting the development of China’s policies.[Method/process]Using five British counter-terrorism strategic documents as the research object,this paper constructed an analytical framework including text mining,policy tools and PMC surface construction,and then made a comparative analysis of the British government’s counter-terrorism policies.[Result/conclusion]In terms of text mining,the UK’s counter-terrorism focuss on institutional collaboration,intelligence gathering and international cooperation,with a wide range of coverage;in terms of policy tools,the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy uses more supply-based and environmental policy tools,and less demand-based policy tools;in terms of the PMC index evaluation model,two of the five policies selected have excellent scores,two have good evaluations,and one is on general level,and there is no bad level policy.It is suggested that China should increase policy support in the field of counter-terrorism,strengthen the construction of national security personnel training system,attach importance to the use of demand-based and environmental policy tools,and strengthen the ability of independent development and collaborative innovation.

关 键 词：英国反恐战略 CONTEST 文本挖掘 政策工具 PMC指数评价模型 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]